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The US public’s commitment to sending its sons and daughters to war has declined in recent years. Polls suggest that US involvement in modern conflicts is more likely to be viewed as mistaken than in the early and middle parts of the 20th century. Today, around 47% of Americans consider the Iraq war a mistake, and 43% feel the same about the war in Afghanistan.
Recent announcements by the US president, Donald Trump, about the possibility of using US forces as part of his Gaza strategy is unlikely to improve those figures.
On February 4, Trump proposed that the US effectively take control of the Gaza Strip and rebuild the area into what he has called the riviera of the Middle East.
When he was asked at a press conference whether he would be willing to use US troops to secure the region, Trump answered that “as far as Gaza is concerned, we’ll do what is necessary. If it’s necessary, we’ll do that. We’re going to take over that piece that we’re going to develop it”.
Trump walked back on that initial claim of the use of military personnel just days later, stating that the US military force would be unnecessary. “The Gaza Strip would be turned over to the United States by Israel at the conclusion of fighting,” adding that “No soldiers by the U.S. would be needed! Stability for the region would reign!” But others have suggested a US military presence would have to be involved.
Putting US troops on the ground would fly in the face of current American public opinion. In a survey taken on February 12, only a quarter of those polled supported the prospect of US troops being sent to the region, and just over half (52%) of Republicans disapproved of the plan.
Less than 25% of Americans supported the US taking ownership of the Gaza Strip, while 62% showed opposition to it. Less than half (46%) of Republican voters polled expressed support while only 10% of Democrats showed any kind of enthusiasm for the initiative, according to the poll.
Of those polled, the majority said they opposed all of Trump’s plans to expand US-controlled territory, whether that was the Panama Canal, Greenland, Canada, or Gaza.
The lack of support from the US public in deploying troops overseas has been constant since the withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021 – and the American public appears to be questioning US military involvement in world affairs more generally.
In a poll taken by foreign policy thinktank Defense Priorities in February 2024, 56% of respondents were “very worried” or “somewhat worried” that the presence of US troops in Syria could escalate into a broader conflict in the region. Of those that opposed a US military presence in Syria, 66% felt that it was a waste of resources.
And just last September, a Pew Research Center poll revealed that 75% of those polled were worried about the Israel-Hamas conflict expanding in the region and US troops becoming more directly involved.
This lack of public support for US military involvement abroad, as well as the poor recent record of recruitment into the military, may be informing Trump’s negotiations in both Gaza, and over the Ukraine war.
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While the US public shows high levels of respect for those who serve in the military, around 80% of American teenagers are not interested in military service, while 55% of adults and 67% of parents are not likely to recommend it as a career to teenagers.
The US has tried numerous recent initiatives, including offering substantial bonuses to entice recruits to join up, but without much success. The army, navy and air force all failed to reach their target recruitment numbers in 2023.
This week Trump opened early discussions with Vladimir Putin, and latterly Kyiv, over proposals for a Ukraine peace deal. In a meeting with European defense ministers in Brussels on February 12, the new US defense secretary Pete Hegseth ruled out the participation of US troops in any peacekeeping mission in Ukraine, although in an interview with the Wall Street Journal on February 13 vice-president JD Vance did not rule out using the military.
Hegseth also said that the US was planning to pull back from its role in European security, sparking high levels of concern from many European leaders.
Some Republican senators have not been particularly supportive of Trump’s Ukraine proposals, especially those that have backed Ukraine over the last three years.
In an interview, Senate armed services chair, Roger Wicker, said that “there are good guys and bad guys in this war, and the Russians are the bad guys. They invaded, contrary to almost every international law, and they should be defeated. And Ukraine is entitled to the promises that the world made to it.” Republican Senator Mike Rounds joined Wicker in demanding that: “Russia be recognised for the aggressor that they are.”
There’s a similar level of concern on Trump’s Gaza plan – even from Trump’s close allies in the party. Rand Paul, the libertarian senator for Kentucky, suggested this idea flew in the face of Trump’s foreign policy proposals espoused during the campaign.
“I thought we voted for America First. We have no business contemplating yet another occupation to doom our treasure and spill our soldiers’ blood,” he wrote on X.
It is unlikely that the majority of Republican voters would be supportive of Trump’s Gaza initiative (or sending troops to Ukraine). This is partly because of the demands that it would make on the federal government – but also because of the necessity of using armed forces to implement it.
Trump’s recent controversial executive orders have barely damaged his early job approval ratings. But the deployment of armed forces to Gaza or Ukraine runs counter to a long-term significant decline in public support for US overseas military intervention and that might be a step too far for many voters.
Dafydd Townley does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
