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It is hard nowadays to find topics on which people agree. Ironically, though, all agree on one point: that disagreement has reached peak levels. People are united in recognising that society has become polarised.
Why has this happened? In a new study, I examined which characteristics of a country fuel polarisation – and whether economics is a factor. I found that poorer countries such as Ethiopia, Myanmar, Guatemala and Zimbabwe are indeed usually more polarised than richer countries. In fact, the poorer the nation, the greater the division on attitudes towards the economy, gender equality and immigration.
This helps explain why poorer countries are also more vulnerable to revolutions and civil wars. They are more divided and slide more easily into actual armed conflict. It is not a coincidence that communist revolutions, which are often sparked by economic polarisation, have never occurred in rich countries, but in those at an early stage of industrialisation – think of Russia in 1917, China in 1949 and Ethiopia in 1974.
However, people in rich countries such as France, Germany and the US report more polarised opinions on abortion, divorce, suicide and homosexuality. It is social norms, rather than economic views, that divide. Anyone who has paid attention to the culture wars raging in the west can attest to this. Think of the anti-abortion stance of evangelical Christians in the US and to the traditional family cherished by European parties like the Alternative for Germany and Brothers of Italy, and compare them with the growing importance of LGBTQ issues among liberals in the west.
Why are rich countries more polarised on social customs? The study shows that people in poor countries have conservative views on these issues – for example, claiming that abortion and divorce are never justified. There is little margin for disagreement in these countries as far as social norms are concerned. By contrast, opinion on social norms in rich countries is split between liberals and conservatives. Conformity pressures are weak on these topics, boosting polarisation.
Education may also play a role. I found that poorly educated people prefer redistribution and state intervention in the economy more than the highly educated. This divergence is greater in poor countries, partially explaining why attitudes on the economy are more polarised in poor countries.
Meanwhile, my study found that highly educated people profess more liberal opinions on social norms than the poorly educated, but the divergence is greater in richer countries. In other words, in poor countries education is more divisive on economic attitudes, while in rich countries it is more divisive on social norms.
Inequality and polarisation
A 2021 study found that polarisation is higher in countries where the income distribution is more unequal. Interestingly, this applies across various domains, including opinions about the economy, immigration and social norms. This adds another important layer to the picture. It suggests that the increase in polarisation is linked to the increase in economic inequality over the past few decades.
Some researchers predict that, as people get richer, polarisation over social norms is destined to fade in the west. In their view, the west is polarised because the population is gradually shifting from a conservative to a liberal stance on social customs. In this view, our current polarisation is essentially an epochal shift. Economic prosperity, the argument goes, will ultimately lead western societies to converge to liberal views, deflating polarisation.
There are two reasons to be cautious about such an assessment. First, the multiple crises faced today by the world, and by the west in particular, may stunt economic prosperity, implying that people may continue to be divided on social norms rather than converging on liberal views.
Second, there is no evidence that economic inequality is going down in the west, and as the research shows, this is not a promising sign in terms of decreasing polarisation. So, citizens of western countries better get used to culture wars for the foreseeable future.
Francesco Rigoli does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
