Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s governing Socialist Party defied the polls to secure a surprisingly good second-place finish in Sunday’s regional election in Castilla y León.
The unexpected result comes after Sánchez emerged as a figurehead of European opposition to the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran, clashing with President Donald Trump in the process.
Ahead of the vote, Spain’s governing party was expected to suffer a major defeat that would have added on to the socialists’ recent electoral debacles in Extremadura in December and Aragón last February. And exit polling conducted by Sigma Dos for El Mundo projected Sánchez’s party would lose up to three seats and end up with one of its worst electoral results since elections were first held in Castilla y León in 1983.
But the party instead picked up two seats and will control a bloc of 30 lawmakers in the 81-seat regional parliament. The socialists will only be surpassed by the center-right People’s Party, which has governed in Castilla y León for the past four decades and is set to remain the largest party in the region with 33 lawmakers.
It will further cheer the socialists to see that the far right performed far worse than expected. Following positive results for the ultranationalist Vox party in Extremadura and Aragón it was expected to secure over 20 percent of the vote for the first time ever in Castilla y León, but ultimately netted less than 19 percent and only expanded its 13-seat bloc in parliament by one lawmaker.
Vox is still the most likely coalition party for the PP, though, which fell short of the number of seats required to govern alone. Castilla y León’s regional president, Alfonso Fernández Mañueco, in 2022 became the first PP leader to form a coalition government with Vox. The partnership lasted just two years, with the far-right group breaking with the conservatives over migration policies.
In the lead-up to Sunday’s election, Vox refused to cast itself as a junior partner to Mañueco’s PP, instead campaigning as a party that can truly represent Spain’s conservative voters. With that rationale, the far-right party has drawn out coalition negotiations in Extremadura and Aragón where, similarly, the center-right won recent regional elections but fell short of a governing majority.
That stance, and a series of high-profile internal purges, may have spooked voters in Castilla y León reluctant to wait months to have a functioning government in action. Sunday’s poor results may persuade Vox to resolve current and future coalition talks more quickly moving forward.
The far-right’s electoral prospects may have also been dampened by the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran, and Trump’s threats against Spain. Vox is the only Spanish political party to explicitly back Washington’s latest war in the Middle East. The notable conflict-related rise in gas and fertilizer prices may also have had an impact on the vote in the largely rural region.
In contrast, the war appears to have favored the Socialist Party. Seizing on the feud between Sánchez and Trump over Washington’s attack on Iran, and the overwhelming disapproval Spaniards feel for the ongoing operations in the Middle East, the socialists made their anti-war stance a cornerstone of the regional campaign.
A spokesperson for the party on Sunday said the messaging may have helped mobilize left-wing voters, but added that local issues like the state of the regional healthcare system had been decisive in the election’s outcome. Whatever the underlying reason for the second-place finish, the results in Castilla y León are a welcome relief to Sánchez’s party — especially ahead of next summer’s elections in Andalucía, and national elections that must be held before August 2023.
While national parties like the PP, the socialists and Vox netted most of the votes in Sunday’s election, several regional parties also secured seats in the parliament. The Leonese People’s Union, Soria Now and For Ávila will have five lawmakers in place to amplify the voice of historically neglected rural voters who are fed up with conventional parties, but who also reject the far right’s messaging.
This article has been updated.
