How Pakistan secured a two-week ceasefire between US, Israel and Iran

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As uncertainty fuels what comes next between the United States, Israel and Iran, after all sides agreed to a two-week ceasefire mediated by Pakistan, Tuesday will be remembered as a day of high drama and dangerous deadlines.

There was speculation that an entire civilisation would be eliminated, and with just hours to go before “hell” was to be rained down on Iran, Pakistan’s Prime Minister posted a message beseeching all sides to agree to the two-week pause making the case that diplomatic efforts were progressing steadily and just need the space and time to get to an agreement.

Sherwin Bryce-Pease reports that this moment signalled some hope that a major military escalation could be avoided, if only at the last minute, with social media playing a key role in getting everyone across the finish line.

It was 8.06am on the East Coast of the United States when President Donald Trump posted this jaw-dropping statement on Truth Social, warning that a whole civilisation would die that night and never be brought back, echoing earlier statements that the United States would bomb Iran back into the stone age and target its power plants and energy infrastructure were there no deal in place by his 8pm EST deadline – about 12 hours away.

That left the pundits and the outrage to grow – many using the words unhinged and a chorus of lawmakers, mainly Democrats, calling for Trump’s removal via impeachment or the 25th amendment.

The US Vice President was in Hungary during that window campaigning for right-wing incumbent Prime Minister Viktor Orban when he said this.

“The President has set a deadline for about 12 hours from now in the United States. We’re going to find out, but there’s going to be a lot of negotiation between now and then, and I’m hopeful that it gets to a good resolution.”

Some US news outlets including the Wall Street Journal reported at the time that Iran had cut off direct diplomacy with the US over Trump’s threat to destroy an entire civilisation.

But President Trump told Fox News during those hours that heated negotiations were continuing adding to the confusion – which at times seemed to be the only certainty.

Then hours later and less than four hours before the 8pm deadline, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif posted on X – that diplomatic efforts had the potential to led to substantive results in the near future – asking President Trump to extend his deadline by two weeks, for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz for the same period and for the all warring parties to ceasefire everywhere.

That gave hope that we might yet find an offramp- nothing certain, speculation often all we had. Tick tock, tick tock to 6.32pmEST when this post from President Trump landed saying he’d agreed to the Pakistani request subject to Iran agreeing to the complete, immediate and safe opening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Crude Oil Price futures dropped more than 15% to below 100 dollars a barrel, the markets began to position for some good news.

39 minutes later at 7.11pm EST Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on behalf of the Supreme National Security Council posted on X that if attacks against Iran were halted, their armed forces would cease their defensive operations and that for a two-week period, safe passage through the Strait opf Hormuz would be possible via coordination with the Iranian Armed Forces.

It now appeared we had the makings of a deal. China also playing a key role in getting Iran to negotiate.

At 7.50pm Pakistan’s PM confirmed a ceasefire had been agreed by Iran, the USA and its allies effective immediately and everywhere including in Lebanon and that he would welcome delegations to Islamabad on Friday for peace talks.

More than three hours later, the Israeli Prime Ministers Office posted that it supported President Trump’s decisions to suspend strikes against Iran for two weeks but that the ceasefire did not include Lebanon, contradicting the mediator.

Sharif later confirming that violations were reported in a few places across the conflict zone as he again urged the parties to exercise restraint and respect the ceasefire for two weeks so that diplomacy can take a lead towards a peaceful settlement of the conflict.

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