French poll sees far-right Bardella winning, far-left Mélenchon surging in 2027 election

PARIS — A new poll shows far-right leader Jordan Bardella of the National Rally is on course to win the French presidency in 2027, but also suggests a surge in support for far-left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon that could upend the race.

According to the poll from Odoxa, published Tuesday, Bardella would beat the conservative candidate and former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe by a margin of 52 percent to 48 percent in the second round of the race for the Élysée.

But the bigger question is now whether Philippe will even make the second round as a consensus candidate for liberals and centrists. The Odoxa survey identified significant momentum for Mélenchon, a firebrand leftist from the France Unbowed party, now running almost neck-and-neck with Philippe in the first round polling.

Mélenchon qualifying for the two-candidate runoff next year is seen as a nightmare scenario by most of France’s political center-right and center-left, because polling predicts he would lose heavily to the far right.

The Odoxa poll showed the leader of France Unbowed winning 16 percent of the vote in the first round, up from 12 percent in a similar poll conducted last month. The poll placed him virtually level with Philippe, who slipped to 17 percent from 21 percent.

Mélenchon was also the most popular left-wing politician among left-wing voters, ahead of rivals such as former President François Hollande and MEP Raphaël Glucksmann. Some 49 percent of left-wing voters supported Mélenchon, compared to 43 percent for Hollande and 36 percent for Glucksmann, the poll said.

“For Édouard Philippe, this poll in May is sounding alarm bells, with a double hit … that shows him dropping behind Bardella in the second round and within range of Mélenchon,” wrote Odoxa head Gaël Sliman.

An Odoxa poll published in November projected that the National Rally leader would beat the far-left candidate by 74 percent to 26 percent.