PARIS — France’s first presidential debate on Thursday should have been an opportunity for centrist and conservative candidates to shine.
Taking place at the annual conference of MEDEF, France’s powerful employers’ lobby, on the burnt-orange clay of Roland-Garros, seven presidential contenders will be quizzed about what they’ll do to make France more business-friendly.
Moderates offering a dose of economic realism historically have home-court advantage at Medef events. But this year’s conventional presidential candidates appear rudderless, riven by infighting and ceding ground to the political extremes — who in turn are setting the terms of the public debate on how to fix France’s financial mess.
One of Medef’s most pressing concerns is Paris’ inability to rein in a stubbornly high budget deficit and reduce a massive pile of debt worth more than €3.5 trillion — or 117.5 percent of gross domestic product — even before the recent spike in global borrowing costs.
The solution du jour comes from far-left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who is calling for the European Central Bank to waive interest payments on its French bond holdings, a move likely to frighten the investors Paris depends on to purchase French sovereign debt. Mélenchon’s proposal is strongly opposed by centrists and the business community, including MEDEF chief Patrick Martin, yet it dominates the discourse on French public debt.
And it’s the latest sign that as France’s economic outlook deteriorates, anti-establishment candidates are successfully pitching themselves as the ones who can fix France’s finances.
“You’d think that it would be a moment … that would profit those who are credible on economic matters,” said lawmaker Erwan Balanant from the centrist Democratic Movement. “But I don’t know who is credible on the economy anymore.”
Surveys continue to show far-right leader Marine Le Pen dominating the field of presidential hopefuls, and a poll released Monday showed Mélenchon on the rise and in a strong position to advance to the second round. The French presidential election goes to a two-candidate runoff if no one clears 50 percent of the vote — and a Le Pen-Mélenchon showdown would be a nightmare scenario for the European Union given their respective antipathy toward some of the bloc’s key pillars.
But Monday’s poll isn’t triggering calls for unity from ideologically similar centrists like former prime ministers Edouard Philippe and Gabriel Attal as well as conservative leader Bruno Retailleau.
It’s instead adding fuel to the vicious internecine battle, and senior centrist figures are increasingly alarmed.
“You’ve seen the polls, let’s name what is happening: It is a collapse of all those who refuse the extremes,” former prime minister and veteran centrist François Bayrou said Tuesday in an interview with BFMTV.
Fighting for match point
In circles close to President Emmanuel Macron, fears are growing that Le Pen and Mélenchon are the only candidates with compelling political narratives.
“Moderate forces need to come up with an innovative and original political offering,” said one of Macron’s close allies who, like others quoted in this piece, was granted anonymity to speak frankly about the state of the presidential race.
Attal, who leads Macron’s Renaissance party, has campaigned throughout the summer promoting proposals on education, immigration and criminal justice reform. But on Tuesday he ruffled feathers by saying the centrist bloc didn’t have a front-runner despite most surveys — including one published Wednesday — showing Philippe ahead of Attal and the conservative Retailleau.
Attal and Philippe have promised to eventually unite around whichever one of them is polling better — Philippe said that would happen between November and February — but their rivalry is getting nastier.
An Attal aide on Monday said that the summer was the “collapse of Edouard Philippe,” to which a prominent Philippe supporter countered later that day: “Nothing [Attal does] shows that he wants unity.”
“Lots of people are telling [Attal and Philippe] to reach an agreement, it won’t work,” said the Philippe supporter.
Getting the conservative Retailleau or center-left MEP Raphaël Glucksmann to stand down in favor of a single moderate candidate will prove difficult as well, as they have serious policy and ideological disagreements with the two former prime ministers.
Given those fractures, few expect reconciliation on center court Thursday afternoon in the name of combating the political extremes. Instead, it’s looking more likely that the prospect of an alliance bites the dust.
