President Donald Trump is stuck.
Iran has made clear that its price for ending hostilities is control over the Strait of Hormuz, a politically unpalatable prospect for the White House. But the ongoing tit-for-tat strikes, threatening to become a wider regional war, is equally untenable.
That’s left a frustrated White House with few good options, five former Trump administration officials told POLITICO.
“Iran wants the political concession of the principle that they get money for passage through the strait,” said a former administration official, granted anonymity to speak candidly. “That will embed their control of the strait in diplomatic practice and customary law.”
Trump over the previous weeks has mixed threats of destruction with promises of resolution, a pattern that continued this weekend. On Saturday night, Trump posted on Truth Social that he had called off an attack on Iran, “subject to being able to rapidly make a DEAL” to open the strait.
“We have just been asked by Iran, and other Middle Eastern Countries, to hold off any attack in that the perimeters of a deal has been agreed to,” he wrote. “This would include the Immediate, Complete, and Total OPENING OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT, and an end to Iran’s nuclear threat.”
The announcement followed media reports suggesting Trump was preparing new, intense strikes on Iran, possibly on the country’s energy infrastructure, which could certainly escalate the conflict. But Iran has not yet responded to Trump’s announcement and has not confirmed that a deal with Washington has been reached.
Nor is there any indication that Iran is willing to relinquish control of the strait.
Inside the White House, top administration officials, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, have warned against any resolution that allows Iran to control the strait.
Doing so, they believe, would imperil the United States’ future ability to sanction Iran because multiple countries would need waivers to pay the fees. It would further reduce the international community’s ability to pressure Iran into giving up its nuclear ambitions. And Rubio last week warned it would create a dangerous precedent sure to be duplicated.
