BIRMINGHAM, England — Britain’s largest opposition party wants to show it’s still on the electoral pitch during an annual gathering that kicks off Sunday.
Despite Conservative Leader Kemi Badenoch consolidating her position and seeing improved personal ratings, the party is still far from its government heyday, and faces an ongoing challenge on the right from Nigel Farage’s populist Reform UK.
Here’s what POLITICO’s team of reporters will be watching for as the Conservatives gather in Birmingham.
U.K. Political Editor Dan Bloom
My biggest question for Badenoch’s speech at 11 a.m. Wednesday will be: can she end Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s honeymoon?
Since July, Labour has jumped to 26% in the polls while the Tories lag behind Reform on 19%. There will simply be fewer lobbyists and hangers-on than at Labour’s jamboree.
Badenoch will spend this week arguing that Burnham, with his crusade against “40 years of neoliberalism,” has ushered in the kind of classic left-right ideological fight that she relishes. Expect her to bang on about cutting welfare to fund defense — two weak points for Labour. And the self-described “badass Kemi” plans to be more abrasive than Burnham, who went out of his way not to attack anyone in his speech.
I reckon two things will decide if she can cut through: her personal brand, and how far she can differentiate the Tories from Labour and Reform (plus, well, her own party from 2024). She will try to paint the Tories as the party of fiscal responsibility but that’s a crowded marketplace. It’s worked for the Conservatives in the past but we aren’t in two-party politics anymore — though admittedly, the five-party split has become less dramatic since the summer.
There will be economic policy announcements but perhaps not on the scale of last year’s pledge to scrap stamp duty. Badenoch has talked about getting rid of inheritance tax but aides appear to be suggesting an announcement isn’t ready.
I can’t wait to see the peacocking by would-be candidates for a general election. Tory aides are shouting from the hills that they are on a “war footing” and candidate selection is ramping up. Some of the high-profile Tories who were rejected for being too centrist are swerving this year’s conference, but former West Midlands Mayor Andy Street will be prominent on the fringe. Critics complain that Badenoch has bulldozed the transepts off her party’s ideological church.
And, of course, I’d ask questions about a coalition. There is no love lost between the Tories and Reform but all recent polls suggest they would have to team up to have any chance of running a government. Will she pull any punches against Farage … or Restore Britain chief Rupert Lowe, whose vote-splitting might help her in the end?
Senior Foreign and Defense Correspondent Esther Webber
I’ll be really interested to see how the party is positioning itself against what we know so far about Ed Miliband’s agenda as foreign secretary — so whether there’s any dissent over new sanctions introduced by Labour on Israeli E1 settlements.
Miliband has just begun to signal a potentially more conciliatory approach to China as an alternative locus of power and investment versus the U.S., so I’ll be looking at whether the Conservatives think this is a weak point where they can redouble attacks on Labour.
There’s also the question of artificial intelligence regulation and which camp the Tories are situating themselves in. Will they agree with the government on the need for a globally coordinated effort, or back U.S. President Donald Trump’s zero-regulation stance?
Finally, here’s a side plot: Are there any signs that former Home Secretary Priti Patel, traditionally a conference fan favorite, is actually doing anything in her new role in coordinating cooperation between the Tories and other parties internationally?
London Influence Reporter John Johnston
With little detail so far about Burnham’s plans for business, and many corporate execs pondering if Farage’s Reform has hit its peak, this Tory conference will be a vital opportunity for the party to try and show it is building back towards being a credible alternative.
Since the 2024 general election, many businesses and lobbying firms have sent only a skeleton staff to Tory conference. But I’ve heard that extra corporate passes and tickets to the standalone Business Day have been snapped up in the last few months. So, attendance may be healthier — even if most still won’t be splashing out on panel events or exhibition stands.
Business leaders remain skeptical about the prospect of an early general election. But as the official opposition, the Conservatives have the potential to help industry shine a spotlight on concerns and push issues up the political agenda if one comes. At last year’s conference, many public affairs pros felt the Tories lacked the ideas, unity and leadership to do that. My focus this year will be figuring out if that assessment has shifted.
Energy Reporter Abby Wallace
The Conservatives have come a long way from the party that, in government, enshrined net-zero targets in law. Badenoch has been clear about the direction she wants to take the party in: ditching legally-binding climate targets and drilling for more oil and gas in the North Sea.
The party’s leader has even suggested that former colleagues who still support the target will not be welcome back on the Tory benches. I’ll be looking out for whether that U-turn at the top has fully filtered through the party.
While energy bills have surged on the back of war in Iran, the party has been pressing Labour ministers to prioritize cutting costs in the system. For the Conservatives, that means ditching some support for renewables and a bigger role for gas and nuclear in the future. I’ll be keeping an ear on whether there is any pressure from the opposition for ministers to intervene ahead of what will be a difficult winter of price rises too.
The future of the North Sea, including looming decisions on Rosebank and Jackdaw, will no doubt spring up on the fringes — especially after the Conservatives clinched the Aberdeen South by-election following a campaign focused on oil and gas drilling.
Financial Services Reporter Eleanor Myers
Andrew Griffith will be stepping up this party conference, having been promoted to shadow chancellor earlier this year to replace his more mild-mannered colleague Mel Stride.
Griffith was a bigwig in business before he entered parliament, and as a former City minister, I’ll be watching whether he focuses his ire on the prospect of Labour raising bank taxes in the budget, which is now less than a month away.
Griffith will make his big speech on how to get Britain growing again at 2 p.m. Monday. Growth was the favored buzzword of former Chancellor Rachel Reeves, and has been heartily adopted by her successor John Healey, although how to achieve it remains a challenge amid soaring debt and rising interest rates. I’m interested to see whether the Conservatives propose a solution.
Senior Technology Reporter Frank Hersey
This conference is a chance for Badenoch’s team to establish any sort of differentiation between Tory tech policy and that of the other parties. This has been getting harder as parties’ approaches have coalesced. Labour committed to a pro-growth agenda for AI under former Prime Minister Keir Starmer with planned regulatory reforms to match. Tory plans for a social media ban for under-16s were eventually (and reluctantly) grasped by Labour. The Tories were further hemmed in by Reform banking the low-tax, low-regulation space.
I’ll be looking to see if the party can get ahead in any policy areas or if it has to pick new ones to do so. Among all the parties, there’s perhaps most interest in what the Conservatives say on tech — as their policy ideas in this space are feeling overdue.
Senior Trade Reporter Sophie Inge
The fightback against Burnham’s pledge to explore closer ties with the EU is expected to continue in Birmingham, after Badenoch warned that Britain shouldn’t be “having arguments which started 10 years ago.”
Deputy Leader Alex Burghart has already pledged to “reverse” the Brexit reset, warning that plans for an agrifood deal with the bloc risk undermining the U.K.’s trading relationship with the U.S., among other countries.
