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The Alberta government is set to outline its latest fiscal plan for the province this week when Budget 2023 is revealed on Tuesday afternoon.
“This budget will reflect the fact that health care is a priority, that health care capacity is a priority, ” he said.
“Our population is growing. Our enrolment in our K-12 education system is growing, and the budget will reflect that good news story with additional enrolment growth.”
At a government announcement last week, he added that there would also be “a deep commitment to public safety and better enforcement.”
The new budget comes 90 days before the provincial election scheduled for May 29.
Here’s a look at where the province stands on some key metrics going into Budget 2023.
Debt and deficit
Alberta’s balance sheet will continue to reflect the recent run of high oil prices amid a rebound from the most severe stages of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.
The province’s surplus is set to shrink by almost one billion dollars, down to $12.3 billion, according to the most recent fiscal update that was delivered in late November.
Nonetheless, another sizeable surplus is expected Tuesday, even with the province spending $2.8 billion over the coming three years in affordability measures to help combat inflation.
Since the 2020-2021 fiscal year, the province’s debt and deficit shrunk, with the latter becoming a modest surplus the following year.
The role of oil
The government’s improved bottom line has largely been driven by oil prices that rose steadily between April 2020 and June of last year.
In the original 2022-23 budget, the government estimated that the cost of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude would average US$70 a barrel. Instead, the price went well beyond that, hitting as high as US$120 a barrel last summer.
The government’s most recent projection last fall had WTI averaging US$91.50 a barrel.
Toews has acknowledged the recent softening of oil prices, but said he expects the outlook for them to remain strong.
Jobs
“Jobs, Economy, Pipelines,” was the mantra of the premier’s predecessor, Jason Kenney, but Smith has cited the need to protect the province’s energy workers amid her recent push back against Ottawa’s sustainable jobs program.
The premier has also touted recent positive job creation numbers and pointed to her government’s efforts to diversify Alberta’s economy.
The province’s overall unemployment rate has risen in recent months, but it also reached a seven-year low last year.
Economists say a skilled labour shortage is continuing to squeeze the Alberta job market.
Affordability
Addressing affordability has been a central issue for Smith since she became premier last October.
In December, her government announced targetted relief payments, price protections on energy and utilities as well as reindexing tax brackets and programs for low-income Albertans among other measures.
Cost-of-living expenses remain high for many Albertans who last month paid five per cent more than at the same time a year earlier for the basket of goods and services that make up the Consumer Price Index (CPI), according to the government’s data.
The same data indicated the largest increase was in food, at 10.5 per cent.
Healthcare spending
Alberta’s per capita health spending has gradually increased through the past two decades, and a new deal with Ottawa announced earlier this month will give the government $518 million new dollars to work with.
The government has already announced some of its health spending plans.
Last week, Health Minister Jason Copping promised to put more than $243 million over three years into primary health care initiatives. And, earlier this month he pledged to spend $158 million in an effort to attract more physicians and other health-care professionals to fill gaps in care.
The Canadian Institute for Health Information estimates 15 per cent of Albertans do not have a primary health provider
