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Moscow risks sparking a direct war with NATO by intercepting ships in international waters and seeking to impose an economic stranglehold on Ukraine, NATO’s former Supreme Allied Commander Europe is warning.
Ex-U.S. Admiral James Stavridis, who led the alliance’s forces on the continent between 2009 and 2013, told POLITICO that escalations at sea — including the boarding of a Turkish ship on Sunday — could force Kyiv’s partners to intervene to prevent Ukraine’s economy being crippled.
“Russia’s actions in the international waters of the Black Sea create a real risk of escalating this to a war at sea between NATO and the Russian Federation,” said Stavridis. NATO, he went on, “is not going to provide all the weapons and money for Ukraine, only to watch Russia strangle their economy with an illegal blockade.”
On Tuesday, Russia’s defense ministry confirmed it had fired warning shots before boarding the Şükrü Okan, a Palau-flagged cargo ship that the Ukrainian foreign minister identified as Turkish. Sensitively, the inspection happened in the southwestern Black Sea, off the coast of Turkey, a NATO heavyweight. Stavridis slammed the tactic as “tantamount to piracy,” with the Kremlin going to greater lengths to undermine trade between Ukraine and the rest of Europe.
“If Russia starts seizing vessels or seeks to scare them away, I think it likely NATO will respond by supporting a humanitarian corridor for shipping,” Stavridis said. The alliance could protect vessels going to and from the Ukrainian port of Odesa “with NATO combat aircraft overhead and possibly NATO warships in escort.”
Tensions in the Black Sea have escalated dramatically since Russia unilaterally withdrew from a U.N. grain deal in July and warned that ships traveling to Ukrainian ports could be seen as military targets. In response, Ukraine showed its willingness to target Russian energy exports with a maritime drone attack on a tanker, and declared the waters around Russia’s Black Sea ports to be a “war risk area” from August 23.
In response to the Russian withdrawal from the grain deal, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg accused Russia of “dangerous and escalatory actions in the Black Sea,” partly also in reference to Russia’s bombardment of Ukrainian ports. NATO added it was “stepping up surveillance and reconnaissance in the Black Sea region, including with maritime patrol aircraft and drones.”
Stavridis argued that support from NATO members bordering the Black Sea, namely Turkey, Romania and Bulgaria, would mean “the Russian Black Sea fleet would be militarily overmatched.”
Turkey has urged Russia to rejoin the grain deal and its National Security Council has said that tension in the Black Sea is “not in anyone’s benefit.” Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is reportedly set to meet with Putin at the end of the month, with the cereals trade likely to be on the agenda.
Until Russia’s withdrawal, the U.N.-broken grain deal was credited with ensuring that 32.9 million tons of crops safely left Ukraine’s Black Sea ports, averting the risk of famine in poorer nations. Russian President Vladimir Putin said his government would “refuse to extend” that agreement, instead electing to provide grain for free to certain African countries on a case-by-case basis.
Following the move, Moscow’s armed forces struck Ukrainian grain depots along the Black Sea coast, destroying a reported 60,000 tonnes of food. Russia has also repeatedly hit the Ukrainian Danube river ports of Reni and Izmail, just a few hundred meters from the border with NATO-member Romania, with missile strikes seemingly targeting the grain trade. Moscow’s defense ministry warned that “all vessels sailing in the waters of the Black Sea to Ukrainian ports will be regarded as potential carriers of military cargo.”
Despite that, Kyiv has declared a “temporary corridor” for maritime traffic from its southern ports, allowing ships that have been confined to harbor for weeks to enter international waters. On Wednesday, Infrastructure Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov announced that the first vessel, a container ship under the flag of Hong Kong, had set sail, despite the threat from Moscow.”
