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| SNEAK PEEK |
— Russia withdrew from the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe: NATO announced the suspension of the agreement in response.
— Britain and Canada push back against a bill to fund the U.S. government next year, saying it would seriously harm maritime defense cooperation between the three allies.
— Europe undermined hopes for strategic autonomy in space by signing contracts with Elon Musk’s SpaceX.
Good morning, and welcome to Morning Defense. Tips to jposaner@politico.eu, lkayali@politico.eu and clarson@politico.eu or follow us at @joshposaner, @LauKaya and @calebmlarson.
| DRIVING THE DAY |
NATO SUSPENDS CFE: The alliance announced the suspension of the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE) on Tuesday in response to Russia’s decision to withdraw from the agreement.
The CFE, signed in 1990, places numerical limitations on tanks, artillery, armored combat vehicles, combat aircraft and attack helicopters, conventional arms and equipment in Europe, with the goal of preventing the massing of forces in specific regions. Russia initially suspended its participation in 2007 and formally withdrew on Tuesday.
Cue outrage: “Russia’s withdrawal is the latest in a series of actions that systematically undermines Euro-Atlantic security,” the North Atlantic Council, NATO’s governing body, said in a statement. The alliance said it would “suspend the operation of the CFE Treaty for as long as necessary.” The United States said it would suspend treaty obligations on December 7.
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| AGENDA |
NATO: Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg will be in Berlin on Thursday for the first NATO Annual Cyber Defense Conference.
FRANCE: Lawmakers this morning present a report on French military aid to Ukraine.
**A message from ASD: Certain technologies are strategically important for Europe’s security. There are several initiatives at the EU level today that seek to identify and promote such technologies. We firmly believe that these initiatives must be closely coordinated and involve industry from the beginning.**
| MILITARY BUDGETS |
SPECIAL RELATIONSHIPS OUT IN THE COLD? Britain and Canada are objecting to the U.S. National Defense Authorization Act, saying the bill’s strict “Buy America” provision for shipbuilding could block cooperation with their countries our U.S. colleagues report.
The Brits object: Karen Pierce, the British ambassador to the U.S., said in an October 23 letter to lead lawmakers that the Senate proposal “increases barriers for the U.K.” and demands an exemption from the rules.
More demands: The U.K. also wants Congress to protect the AUKUS nuclear submarine pact by giving it a “firm” exemption from the American export control regime — as well as expedited arms sales and improved information sharing. London is asking to expand the Pentagon’s authority under the Defense Production Act for investments in military suppliers based in the U.K. and Australia. Currently, the law limits investments to “domestic sources” in the U.S. and Canada, but the Pentagon has been pushing for an expansion.
EU CASH GOES TO A FEW: Two-thirds of the European Defence Fund’s money went to French, Italian, Spanish and German companies in 2021, according to the Open Security Data Europe platform analyzed by the European network against arms trade. Leonardo, Thales and Airbus are among the main beneficiaries. Earlier this month, Bulgaria’s Defense Minister Todor Tagarev told Morning Defense that EU money should benefit the whole bloc and not only a few countries.
FRENCH PEOPLE’S SAVINGS COULD FINANCE DEFENSE INDUSTRY: The French government agreed to add to the country’s draft 2024 budget an amendment by lawmakers that would allow two savings accounts popular in France — the “Livret A” and another one on “sustainable and solidarity development” — to be able to fund defense contractors, specifically SMEs. The move is meant to compensate for the reluctance of banks to invest in weapons manufacturers. The French Senate still needs to greenlight the new measure before it becomes law.
QUICK HIT: Sweden’s perception of the EU defense industrial toolbox. More here.
| SPACE |
SEVILLE SPACE CONFERENCE: French President Emmanuel Macron was happy that European Space Agency (ESA) members agreed to kick in up to €340 million per year to the delayed Ariane 6 rocket system. The deal will also see developers try to cut costs and marketing of the smaller Vega and Vega-C missions transferred to Italy-based Avio, the prime contractor for the rocket. This eases long-standing tension among Italy, France and Germany and ensures that both Ariane 6 and Vega-C (which also gets some extra subsidy cash) will get 42 missions in total. “The agreement reached yesterday confirms it: Our European space history is only just beginning,” Macron posted Tuesday.
Paying Elon: The European Commission keeps banging on about strategic autonomy, but it’s had to sign a €180 million deal with SpaceX to get its satellites into orbit next year because of delays to Ariane 6. Josh has more from Tuesday’s Competitiveness Council in Seville here.
Space money redistribution: The Competitiveness Council was focused on space, and Internal Market Commissioner Thierry Breton told the press there should be less emphasis on distributing contracts to countries depending on their cash contribution to ESA. That’s balanced out the bloc’s aerospace procurement and helped smaller countries develop local industries, but France reckons it’s cumbersome and has contributed to program delays.
ESA Director General Josef Aschbacher said member countries would look to find consensus on the issue by the “middle of next year.”
IRIS2 satellite deal coming soon: The European Commission plans to resolve industry contracts for the development of the IRIS2 communication satellite system early next year, Breton told Josh. “We are in a stage of competitive dialogue.”
The EU has allocated €2.4 billion to the plan to ape SpaceX’s Starlink space-based internet system; a further €750 million will come from ESA. Airbus has pitched itself as the leader of a consortium of aerospace and telecom companies that could build the system, which is expected to provide high-speed internet to Africa as well as eliminating Europe’s dead zones.
Self-defense: Breton also said the Commission was looking at reserving elements of IRIS2 just for militaries as part of a dual-use strategy. The separate Galileo navigation system already has a specially encrypted service for armies and intelligence services.
UFOs: The head of the Pentagon office responsible for investigating UFOs is stepping down in December, he said in an exclusive interview with our U.S. colleague Lara Seligman. And the big question: Is anyone out there? “The best thing that could come out of this job is to prove that there are aliens” — because the alternative is a much bigger problem, said Sean Kirkpatrick, the head of the All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office. “If we don’t prove it’s aliens, then what we’re finding is evidence of other people doing stuff in our backyard, and that’s not good.”
More here.
**What will the future of Europe’s defense policy look like? Join our speaker line-up at POLITICO Live’s Defense Launch event on November 21 to learn about this and much more. The event will start with an exclusive joint interview and will be followed by a high-level panel discussion. Register to watch online!**
| UKRAINE |
THOUSANDS OF WEAPONS, MILLIONS OF ROUNDS: Since the beginning of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, Russian companies have imported around 7,300 firearms and almost 8 million rounds of ammunition from Western manufacturers, reported German investigative journalism nonprofit Correctiv.
Data dive: Correctiv trawled through a Russian state database for import certifications and found weapons made by Germany’s Blaser GmbH and Merkel Jagd- und Sport Waffen, as well ammunition from Nammo Schönebeck, RWS and Ruag Ammotech.
In real life: Some of the weapons found in the import statistics appear to have been used in Ukraine in recent months, judging by posts on Telegram and X. In them, Russian officials and Wagner Group mercenaries are seen posing with weapons from Western manufacturers. Trading portals on Telegram also offered German-made weapons for sale in Russia, while rifles made by Blaser were recently exhibited at a weapons fair in Moscow.
This sporting life: The weapons tracked by Correctiv are classified as for hunting and sporting use, meaning that they are not subject to wartime restrictions on sales to Russia. They can also be exported to third countries which, the investigation found, are serving as intermediaries for eventual deliveries to Russia. Exports of such weapons have increased significantly of late to countries like Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and North Macedonia.
Export loophole: In contrast to the United States, which announced last month that it would completely suspend the export of civilian firearms to non-state actors, Germany has no such restrictions in place. Responding to Correctiv’s research, Roderick Kiesewetter, a federal lawmaker for the opposition Christian Democrats, said Germany should follow the American lead and suspend all such exports — with the exception of deliveries to Ukraine and Israel.
Déjà vu: If Correctiv’s findings sound familiar, they should. One of the report’s authors is Sergey Panov, who reported for POLITICO earlier this year on how U.S. sniper ammunition finds its way into Russian rifles, and how China is supplying dual-use equipment to Russia. Helming the project was Anette Dowideit, who in her earlier role as investigations editor at WELT collaborated with POLITICO on several assignments.
You can read the full Correctiv investigation, in German, here.
UKRAINIAN F-16 FLIGHT TRAINING: Five Dutch F-16 fighter jets flew to a training center in Romania to train both Romanian — and Ukrainian — pilots, the Dutch Ministry of Defense announced. “Today marks a milestone: five Dutch F-16s have already arrived at the training center in Romania. We keep working together to welcome F-16s into Ukrainian skies as soon as possible,” tweeted Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
SLOVAKIA ARMS SALES: New Slovak PM Robert Fico has halted government arms deliveries to Ukraine, but he’s not planning to stop exports from the country’s private arms companies, he said in a Monday chat with new Defense Minister Robert Kaliňák. Slovakia last year exported $406 million in weapons and ammunition, a 229 percent increase on 2021; more than 60 percent of that went to Ukraine, according to TrendEconomy.
Focus on home: The new government aims to beef up air defenses in eastern Slovakia along the border with Ukraine. While it plans to end military aid, Fico did say: “We will do everything we can to help Ukraine in a humanitarian and civilian way. I suppose one of such things could be demining,” the local press reported.
FRENCH MINISTER COMMITS TO UKRAINE FUND: French Armed Forces Minister Sébastien Lecornu committed to the renewal of France’s special fund for Ukraine during a debate on the 2024 budget on Tuesday, at the request of lawmakers. In the past months, a €200 million cash pot helped finance French weapons sent to Kyiv. However, to make sure that money for Ukraine isn’t taken from France’s defense budget, Lecornu said the new fund — which is likely to be re-topped with another €200 million — would need to be put in place via a different finance tool, which will be discussed in the National Assembly today.
| PROCUREMENT |
POLISH AIR DEFENSE: MBDA has signed an agreement with state-owned weapons maker Polska Grupa Zbrojeniowa (PGZ) for the NAREW air defense program for the Polish military. MDBA said the deal is valued at “in excess” of £4 billion, and under the terms of the deal, PGZ will build 1,000 CAMM-ER air defense missiles and over 100 launchers for the NAREW program in Poland under license.
SOUTH KOREA ARMS DEALS RISK: South Korean defense procurement officials have raised concerns that a series of multibillion-dollar arms deals with Poland are at risk in the wake of the country’s election, the FT reports.
| MILITARY EXERCISES |
COUNTERING IMPROVISED EXPLOSIVE DEVICES: The European Defence Agency’s largest ever counter-improvised explosive device exercise, Bison Counter 2023, kicked off in Spain, pulling together 12 EU member states and other observers to improve Europe’s counter-IED and counter-terrorism operations.
THANKS TO: Jan Cienski and Zoya Sheftalovich.
**A message from ASD: We consider a technology as ‘critical’ if it is essential for a strategic sector and based on value chains for which Europe lacks the appropriate level of control. In particular in defence, security and space, industry is well-placed to help identify such technologies, as it understands the nexus between capabilities and technologies and knows dependences and vulnerabilities along critical value chains. It is therefore essential that initiatives to identify critical technologies involve industry from the very beginning.**
