Millions Of Expats Could Penalise Tories In The Next Election – But There’s A Catch

More expats will be able to vote in the next general election due to a new Conservative policy – but how much of an impact will that actually have?

Although Rishi Sunak is yet to confirm the date of the next general election – expected in the second half of this year – here’s what you need to know.

What’s the rule change?

The government has recently altered its election rules so all British citizens who live abroad can register to vote in a general election.

They can vote by proxy or by postal vote in the last UK constituency they resided in.

Acquaintances can “attest” someone lived in a certain constituency too, if they cannot provide proof of their former address.

Prior to the new rule, which came into effect on January 16, anyone who left the UK more than 15 years ago could not vote.

The Tories vowed to drop this restriction in their 2019 manifesto, and passed it law through the Election Act 2022.

The government estimated there were around 1.4 million eligible voters in the expat community before this rule change came in.

Now, the government estimates there are between 2.3 million and 3.5 million expat voters who would be eligible.

If the real numbers are close to the upper estimate, that would equate to almost three times the number of votes which determined the 2016 EU referendum (1.6 million).

But, there is no official data on the number of British citizens living abroad, so it’s hard to know the impact this will have.

Still, The Times reported that more than 21,000 Brits living abroad have already registered to vote since the rule change was introduced.

The rule change does bring the UK in line with other major democracies around the world which grant citizens lifelong voting rights.

Who will benefit from this change?

This is a Tory policy, and historically, the expat community has backed the Conservatives.

But, the University of Sussex’s Dr Susan Collard told The Times that expat voters may now choose to support Labour and the Liberal Democrats.

A study she conducted with Professor Paul Webb in 2020 suggested the expat community had swung in favour of Labour and the Lib Dems since the 2019 general election.

And Collard suggested not much had changed since then, especially in the wake of Brexit.

Many British expats were not able to vote in the EU referendum because of this rule, which caused much consternation at the time.

If Collard’s prediction is correct, making the vote available to more British emigrants could mean more support for the Tories’ opponents.

How many expats actually vote?

This is where it gets tricky to understand just how much of an impact this will have, as not all eligible expats have actually registered in the past.

A government research briefing released this January notes that the number of overseas voters did not rise above 35,000 until 2015.

Then, a flurry of interest in the 2015 general election and interest in the EU referendum meant a record 285,000 registered overseas voters registered in 2017.

In December 2019, these numbers dropped down slightly to 233,000 people living abroad registered to vote for the general election.

Numbers fell again in December 2021 to 105,000, but it’s common for registrations to decrease between elections.

It’s not clear how many people will register to vote from overseas for the next general election.

According to the government’s general estimates,  it is assumed just 17.8% of overseas voters register during an election year, while 4.7% register during a non-election year.

And a whopping 67.3% do not renew their registration to vote at all, meaning they are removed from the register.

The government currently estimates around 302,000 expats will register to vote in the first election after the 15-year cap is removed.

Working on warnings from the Electoral Commission, the government also said that surveys looking at voter behaviour and turnout are “subject to error” as people may “over-estimate their likelihood of voting” or think they’ve voted when they haven’t.

Others face administrative errors which could hinder their ability to vote.

For instance, in the 2017 general election, the Electoral Commission said: “Many British citizens living overseas, especially those who have been away for a considerable period of time, may not be able to identify an eligible person living in the UK who they can appoint as their proxy.”