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BRUSSELS — Never waste a good crisis, especially if it is a good campaign opportunity.
President of the European Commission since 2019, Ursula von der Leyen has steered Europe through a pandemic, a cost of living crisis, and a war on the continent’s doorstep.
As the “existential threat” of the war in Ukraine shows no sign of abating, the former German defense minister is campaigning for a second term on a platform of her being crisis-manager-in-chief, hoping to win over European Union leaders who themselves are making promises of financial and moral support for Ukraine. So with the United States hesitant to continue funding the war and a looming possible return of former President Donald Trump, this week’s summit of EU leaders in Brussels is the perfect place for von der Leyen to make her pitch.
“Von der Leyen is turning from president of the Commission to somebody running for office and shifting her policies that way,” said Nicolai von Ondarza of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs. “You can see that on farmers, on enlargement … and on security and defense, which she is trying to make one of her core messages in the election campaign.”
Earlier this month, von der Leyen zoomed in on European defense during her nomination speech for a second term, saying Europe needs “to turbocharge our defense industrial capacity in the next five years.”
The discussions at the European Council summit come as Paris and Berlin have feuded over their respective Ukraine strategies. French President Emmanuel Macron’s increasingly hawkish rhetoric has led to annoyance in Berlin, especially when France urged Europe not to act as “cowards” in the face of Russia’s aggression. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has faced criticism for his refusal to send German Taurus missiles to Ukraine.
“Von der Leyen has tried to fill the leadership vacuum that has been there for quite some time due to both Germany and France’s leaders focused on internal politics,” said von Ondarza.
Franco-German squabbles
The EU recently agreed on €5 billion to partially reimburse member states for new arms shipments to Ukraine. But the situation on the battlefield remains dire.
“There is a lot of fear that we could reach a tipping point where we could potentially see some real Russian breakthroughs this summer,” said Alissa de Carbonnel, deputy program director for Europe and Central Asia at the International Crisis Group, an NGO.
The Franco-German quibbling and the continued Russian threat, at a time when U.S. support for Ukraine has been cast into question, helps von der Leyen, a former German defense minister, in her bid to stay on as head of the EU’s executive arm.
“The EU simply cannot afford to have a long transition period or political insecurity in this context,” said one senior EU official who was granted anonymity to speak freely. “Von der Leyen has her flaws, but overall she is the right person in the right place.”
But not all European leaders agree with von der Leyen on how to get there. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán wants to change course on the EU’s Ukraine policy. And other leaders disagree internally on how to fund more ammunition for Ukraine.
Ukraine says the EU needs to make decisions with some urgency.
“It’s urgent for EU partners because Ukraine has been the major security provider to EU countries and NATO countries. And Ukraine has been showing the capability to secure Europe and to shield Europe from the aggression. And now Ukraine is lacking capabilities to deliver on that,” said Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Olga Stefanishyna.
“So it’s vital for all Europe and it’s extremely urgent.”
At the peak of the pandemic, when member states were closing their borders, von der Leyen steered through the crisis through joint vaccine procurement and joint EU debt. Now, a number of EU countries are calling on her to take the same approach on defense. On top of joint procurement of weapons, countries such as France, Estonia and Poland are pushing for joint EU debt to raise more money for weapons. European Council President Charles Michel also supports the idea.
This is a no-go for others, including Germany, the Netherlands and the Nordics, making it hard for von der Leyen to go this far, EU diplomats said.
“When Germany hesitates, that’s a problem for Europe,” said Sylvie Matelly, director of the Jacques Delors Institute. “Especially when the president of the Commission is German.”
An external shock, such as a poorly aimed missile that hits a European country or the risk of the fall of Ukraine could change those red lines. “Although this time reacting instead of acting could mean that it is too late,” said a diplomat from Eastern Europe, granted anonymity to speak freely about a sensitive subject.
Von der Leyen’s steps on defense
In the short term, von der Leyen is already laying out a Europe-wide vision on defense: announcing a new defense commissioner, more dedicated defense funding, a bigger defense industrial base and using Russian frozen assets to finance weapons for Ukraine.
To invest more in weapons, von der Leyen and her foreign policy chief Josep Borrell want to use 90 percent of the proceeds of frozen Russian assets to buy weapons for Ukraine. But some European leaders, such as Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and Slovakia’s Robert Fico, fear handing ammunition to Ukraine will contribute to a military escalation. Other countries, such as Malta and Ireland, are not allowed to buy lethal weapons for foreign countries under their decades-old neutrality policies.
Von der Leyen’s plan for a European defense industrial strategy is getting pushback from Germany who supports boosting the sector but fear the plan includes a power grab from the Commission which they believe will not help efforts.
The same goes for von der Leyen’s idea to appoint a defense commissioner, which was met with grumbles in some European capitals.
“This will work for her as an election topic. Whether she will be in a position as Commission president if she gets elected to make good on that promise is another question, precisely because the resistance of member states to hand more powers to the Commission is quite strong,” said von Ondarza.
The most sensitive issue, however, is the future financing of more defense investments, another potential point of contention for EU leaders on Thursday.
“I don’t know if this European summit will be the acme, or the watershed moment… but I’m fairly optimistic,” said a French diplomat, who was granted anonymity to speak candidly about the subject.
After two years of war and with the situation on the ground deteriorating, Ukraine’s supporters argue the EU has to put the money where the mouth is, Latvian Foreign Minister Krišjānis Kariņš told reporters.
While EU leaders agree the current proposal to mobilize €1.5 billion of the EU budget will not be enough, they disagree on where to fund the extra money, for example, through defense bonds.
Meanwhile, the clock is ticking for soldiers on the battlefield, Ukraine’s supporters stress.
“This year is critical and we must do whatever we can to provide all that we can in support of Ukraine’s resistance on the ground,” Romanian Foreign Minister Luminita Odobescu told POLITICO. Therefore, “time is of the essence.”
Hans von der Burchard contributed reporting from Berlin. Clea Calcutt contributed reporting from Paris. Gregorio Sorgi, Camille Gijs, Stuart Lau, Bartosz Brzeziński and Ketrin Jochecová contributed reporting from Brussels.
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