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By Veeragathy Thanabalasingham
Colombo, March 25: The question whether parliamentary elections will be held before the Presidential election or whether the elections will be delayed to make changes in the parliamentary elections system is causing confusion among the people.
Although President Ranil Wickremesinghe recently asked the cabinet to prepare for the Presidential election, the Rajapaksas are insisting that parliamentary elections should be held first.
President Wickremesinghe’s initial talks with former President Mahinda Rajapaksa and his younger brother Basil Rajapaksa did not lead to any agreement regarding the formation of an alliance or the elections.
While the President seems to be determined that the Presidential election should be held before mid-October according to the constitition, the majority of Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna ( SLPP ) MPs want parliamentary elections to be held first. That demand has intensified since Basil’s return from America. But the important question is whether the Rajapaksas will be able to prevail upon the President to comply with that request.
When Basil Rajapaksa met the President for the second time, he presented to him their demand regarding parliamentary elections. He told the media that before meeting the President, he had consulted members of Parliament from his party and its allies and did not expect an immediate determination from the President on holding parliamentary elections first. He has also said they need to have discussions again.
The next parliamentary elections should be held between August and September 2025. But the House can pass a resolution a with simple majority support to request the President to dissolve Parliament immediately to facilitate the holding of elections before the Presidential election. But, the President is not bound to dissolve the Parliament on account of that.
However, the President now has the power to dissolve Parliament at any time. But, he is not going to agree to dissolve Parliament because of his emphasis on the Presidential election.
Meanwhile, since a significant number of current Members of Parliament were elected to Parliament for the first time in the 2020 general elections, it is certain that they are not going to support a dissolution because if Parliament is dissolved before the end of the five-year term, they will lose their chance to get pension.
The Rajapaksas, who had always held parliamentary elections after the Presidential elections during their rule, have now come up with a strange reasoning to justify their current position.
In an interview with a private television channel recently, Basil said that if parliamentary elections are held after the Presidential election, the people will give overwhelming support to the party of the new President. So parliamentary elections must be held first to ensure that the people vote rationally. By this argument he indirectly acknowledges that the people of the country did not vote intelligently in the parliamentary elections held after the Presidential election during their rule.
Not only that, he is now speaking as though he has forgotten the key role he played in encouraging party cross-overs to secure a two-thirds majority in the House to introduce constitutional amendments and anti-democratic laws aimed at strengthening his family’s interests after the 2010 and 2020 parliamentary elections.
At the same time, Mahinda Rajapaksa has also voiced his support for the demand that parliamentary elections must be held before the Presidential election and added “If our proposal is not accepted, the party of the winner of the Presidential election will win the parliamentary elections overwhelmingly. It is not good for the country. It is important that there should be a fair situation in the country after the elections.”
It is clear from the comments of the Rajapaksa brothers that the Rajapaksas’ desire is that no party should get a clear majority in Parliament.
It seems that the Rajapaksas do not want a strong successor government as their party is unlikely to win the parliamentary elections. It is because of that they think that the party of the next President should not win a big victory in the parliamentary elections
But the President’s United National Party (UNP) does not want parliamentary elections to be held first. The party strongly believes that Wickremesinghe has a chance of winning the Presidential election as a result of the economic restructuring that the government is carrying out with the help of the International Monetary Fund.
The UNP being organisationally very weak is not in a position to face parliamentary elections at the moment. Party stalwarts believe that if Wickremesinghe wins the presidential election, they will be able to face the parliament elections confidently.
The President has so far not expressed any opinion publicly regarding the Rajapaksa brothers’ demand on Parliamentary elections. It seems that the Rajapaksas don’t have any option other than supporting Wickremesinghe in the Presidential election even though they have contradictions with him on many issues including the elections. Even if Wickremesinghe (with their support) becomes President again, the Rajapaksas will not want his government to be stable.
Although they say that they want a fair situation to be maintained in the country after the elections, they seem to think that it is in their best interest to have a fragile government in office.
Claiming that SLPP and JVP have robust organizational structures and SLPP and opposition leader Sajith Premadasa’s Samagi Jana Balawegaya ( SJB ) have sufficient popular support, Basil said in the television interview that the UNP lacks strong structures and popular support, but it has the best presidential candidate.
These comments are a clear indication of his belief that if SLPP and UNP work together in the presidential election, it would be beneficial for both parties. But, at the same time, he wants Parliamentary elections be held first so that the UNP does not get a big victory in it. The Rajapaksas want all circumstances to be favourable to their interests at all times.
It is noteworthy that most of the recent opinion polls have showed that it is impossible for any political party to get an absolute majority, if the parliamentary elections are held in the present political situation.
Meanwhile, with the presidential election six months away, the cabinet’s approval for a proposal to change the parliamentary election system last week has raised suspicions.
According to reports on the cabinet resolution on electoral reforms, laws will be introduced to elect 160 Members of Parliament on the basis of First-Past – the Post system and remaining 65 members on the basis of proportional representation.
A similar proposal was said to have been submitted to the Cabinet by Justice and Constitutional Reforms Minister Dr.Wijedasa Rajapaksa latter part of the last year. He denied the reports that the government was also considering holding a referendum to seek people’s approval for abolishing the Executive Presidential system along with electoral reforms. Anyway the proposal for electoral reforms has been brought forward again and cabinet approved it.
It is also noteworthy that late last year, President Wickremesinghe had appointed a commission led by former Chief Justice Priyasath Dep to completely review all the processes related to the elections and submit a report within six months. Election watchdog civil organizations and opposition parties have expressed fears that the proposed parliamentary electoral reforms could lead to the postponement of elections. But Minister Wijedasa Rjapakshe has stated that the new system would not be applied in the coming elections.
The electorate delimitation process is crucial for electoral reforms. Dealing with the various procedures associated with those process takes a long time, even last for years.
Provincial council elections have not been held for many years due to a glitch in the delimitation process after the law was passed in 2017 during the ‘ Yahapalanaya ‘ government to hold the provincial council elections under a mixed electoral system.
However, under the constitution, parliamentary elections cannot be postponed. Therefore, speculation in the political about the postponement of the 2025 parliamentary elections are unfounded.
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