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LONDON — As the Conservative Party tastes the bitter reality of defeat for the first time in 14 years, attention has already turned to who might pick up the pieces.
At Thursday’s election, the party suffered the biggest rout in its history, a humiliating defeat as the incumbents were punished by voters.
Rishi Sunak announced his resignation outside Downing Street Friday and confirmed he would stand down as party leader once arrangements have been made to find his successor — firing the starting gun on the contest to replace him.
Conservative leaders — who must be sitting MPs — are elected by the party’s members of parliament and the wider party membership.
The race which will unfold over the coming weeks is bound to be closely fought, and, given the divisions in the party of the last few years is likely to be a testy one which will ask difficult questions of the Conservatives’ surviving MPs.
The contest is likely to be a battle between the Tory rightwingers and moderates, even as many in the party plead for someone capable of rising above that dichotomy.
As one Conservative aide, granted anonymity to speak frankly, commented bitterly: “The Labour Party might be in government now, but they can’t do a soap opera like we can.”
Let the race begin
The shape of the contest will necessarily be dictated by the scale of the Tory losses, with several former leading lights no longer in parliament.
Former Commons Leader Penny Mordaunt and former Defense Secretary Grant Shapps were once hailed as potential leaders among more centrist-minded colleagues, but both lost their seats to Labour.
Those now widely expected to put themselves forward include, on the right, former Business Secretary Kemi Badenoch, the early bookies’ favorite, and former Immigration Minister Robert Jenrick.
Hardline former Home Secretaries Priti Patel and Suella Braverman have both been tipped as frontrunners, although one ally of Braverman said this was now less likely.
Former Security Minister Tom Tugendhat and former Health Secretary Victoria Atkins are two remaining prominent names from the moderate wing of the party — with outgoing Chancellor Jeremy Hunt now a wildcard after he clung on to his seat against the odds.
While immediate recriminations between left and right are inevitable — with some so angry at the way Sunak handled the election that they do not even want him to stay as caretaker — a growing consensus is emerging that the leadership contest should run long while the party takes a good hard look at itself.
Before battle can begin, the remaining Tory MPs will first have to elect a chairperson and executive for the 1922 Committee, the influential body representing Conservative backbenchers, a task which POLITICO understands will take place within the next two weeks.
The leadership contest could then be held over the long summer recess, according to two people familiar with the process, with some arguing for the race to run even longer and conclude with the party’s annual conference at the end of September.
Henry Hill, editor of Tory grassroots bible ConservativeHome, said: “Every faction needs time to process what’s happened and face up to the fact that this is not the result of the last few years. It is the result of cumulative failure over this entire period in government.”
Past and present MPs had a similar message.
The Nigel factor
Former Cabinet minister Andrea Leadsom, who stood down at the election, stressed the need to “think carefully about a strong center-right narrative,” while ex-MP and Brexiteer David Jones called for “mature reflection.”
A senior Tory MP who narrowly kept their seat said everyone “needed a minute” to absorb the magnitude of what had just happened.
The factions are somewhat united by their shared frustrations with Sunak and also with the party more widely.
Most Conservatives agree that Sunak and his advisers mishandled the election, from its timing onwards, to a catastrophic extent. There is also a shared belief that the party was punished for internal strife and poor behavior in recent years.
Robert Buckland, the former justice secretary, launched a stinging attack on his own party after losing his seat, declaring he was “fed up of personal agendas and jockeying for position.”
The Tories are also bolstered, at least for now, by a desire to move on and hold its own without the input of Nigel Farage.
Hill said the nature of Reform’s campaign “has really toxified it with a lot of Conservative MPs and senior activists” to the extent that the question of whether to cozy up to Farage or not was no longer “the most likely dividing line in a leadership contest.”
“I don’t think anybody serious wants to do a deal,” said the Tory aide quoted above, who belongs to the right of the party. “We don’t want to invite him in just to punch us in the face.”
What happens next?
However, that leaves several unsolved questions for the brave soul who takes the Tory reins next.
The same rightwing aide said: “Whoever comes out of this now needs to be somebody that is serious on migration” if the Conservatives are to have any hope of winning votes back on Reform.
Meanwhile, others would like to see the party take radical action to broaden its appeal to younger age groups, graduates and families.
Alex Challoner, a senior activist and deputy chair of the moderate Tory Reform Group, warned: “We can’t just be speaking for one part of the electorate. We’ve got to broaden that base of support.”
One former minister who lost his seat set out the stakes if the next leader fails to meet those challenges.
Speaking anonymously in order to be frank about his views, he said: “If Keir can dominate the center-ground and Reform make the noise on the right then we are going to struggle to define ourselves and plot a course back. We’re in a very dangerous position.”
