Von der Leyen is in! Let the fighting over the next European Commission begin. 

STRASBOURG — Ursula von der Leyen will spend the next five years as president of the European Commission. But getting the approval of EU leaders and MEPs is just the start. Now, she needs to start work on a puzzle so complicated it’ll make solving a Rubik’s Cube look like child’s play (not that von der Leyen would appreciate a reference to a puzzle with ties to
Viktor Orbán).

Von der Leyen now needs to assemble her team of commissioners. The moves she makes in the coming weeks will determine how the EU defends the internal market against corporate big beasts, how the bloc bolsters the defense industry in the face of a potential second Donald Trump presidency, and how it makes sure the bloc is ready to be climate-neutral by 2050.

In theory, the rules are simple. 

Each country gets one commissioner (von der Leyen counts as Germany’s choice and Kaja Kallas, backed by EU leaders to be the next foreign policy chief, will be Estonia’s representative).

At a press conference after the vote on Thursday, von der Leyen said she will ask national leaders “in the coming weeks” for a man and a woman to be nominated, except when there is an incumbent commissioner who is staying. She will then interview candidates as of mid-August.

It is then up to her to divvy up the portfolios among the different commissioners.

In practice, it’s a political mess, as she has to take into account gender balance, political party balance, and geographical balance. Leaders will also haggle over portfolios, hoping to secure a powerful post.

Most of these conversations will take place in private, but Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, for example, has already made clear that she expects “Italy to be recognized for the role it deserves in terms of the portfolios … when the Commission is formed.” 

One name or two? 

There is an elephant in the room: many EU countries are irritated at how von der Leyen went about her business in her first term.

The former German defense minister and her powerful chief of staff Björn Seibert are often accused of overstepping their mark, cutting EU governments and the commissioners out of their decision-making, and dealing instead with just a small group of advisers. “I’m bracing myself for years of the same degree of centralization,” said an EU official who, like others quoted in this piece, was granted anonymity to speak freely. 

Some EU capitals are determined to make clear to von der Leyen that things have to change, and it starts with their choice of who they send to Brussels. 

“It’s the prerogative of leaders,” said an EU diplomat. “Sending two names, and letting von der Leyen pick who she wants, increases her power and leverage.”

Even before von der Leyen got the green light in Strasbourg, some EU capitals had already publicly stated who they plan to send to Brussels. Those countries — Finland, Latvia, Ireland, Sweden, Slovenia and Slovakia — have only put one name forward.

“Respectfully and in accordance with the treaties, we have taken a decision to send one name,” Irish Taoiseach Simon Harris said last month, after announcing that Finance Minister
Michael McGrath is his choice to come to Brussels.

Of course, von der Leyen can push back, and she has leverage. 

Each country gets a commissioner job, but it’s up to von der Leyen to determine who gets the prized portfolios, such as competition, industrial policy, trade, and enlargement. Portfolios involving multilingualism, demography, or foresight are less sought after. Von der Leyen also gets to choose what those portfolios are. She wants to have a defense commissioner this time, which would be a new role, as well as portfolios that would cover housing, fisheries, and “ensuring intergenerational fairness.”

By promising important portfolios, von der Leyen can push EU leaders to provide two names or at least come up with an alternative if she doesn’t like the first pick. 

After running the Commission for five years, von der Leyen and her team are keen to get experienced and motivated politicians. End-of-career leftovers or problematic politicians who can be punted to Brussels by national governments are not what she wants. She also wants the structure of the next Commission to be simpler by moving from three layers (executive vice-presidents, vice-presidents and commissioners) to two.

But there’s no telling what will happen in the next five years. Few expected Cypriot health commissioner Stella Kyriakides or Estonian energy commissioner Kadri Simson to play a role of importance until the pandemic struck and then Russia’s invasion of Ukraine led to an energy crisis. So von der Leyen wants an all-star team from the get-go.

The downside? Heavy hitters want major portfolios, and not everyone can get one.

“Everyone wants an executive vice president or a vice president and everyone wants an economic portfolio,” said one senior EU diplomat. “Good luck to the 13th floor to square that circle,” the diplomat added, referring to the top floor of the Berlaymont, the Commission HQ and where von der Leyen lives as well as works while in Brussels.

Who wants what?

France and Italy are the biggest European powers eying a portfolio that includes one or more of the following: Competition, trade, industry and economic policy, several EU diplomats said, much to the despair of northern, more budget-disciplined EU governments.

Ireland and Luxembourg are interested in a financial portfolio, while Spain wants an energy and climate portfolio for its deputy Prime Minister Teresa Ribera. 

Several European capitals, including the Baltics and Poland, are hoping for the enlargement portfolio, which will be key to preparing the ground for the future EU membership of Ukraine, Moldova, and Western Balkans countries. 

Among the eastern and southern countries, several capitals are interested in cohesion and regional policy, as the EU’s upcoming long-term budget is likely to shake up the way Brussels distributes its funds.

Von der Leyen will also have to make sure the socialists and the liberals, who have backed her in the European Parliament, get enough power in the Commission, as the majority of commissioners will be from her own European People’s Party. That sheer number of EPP commissioners could help von der Leyen hold power in the Commission, officials said, but it could also lead to more EPP infighting. 

A wide range of European leaders have already talked to von der Leyen about their wish list, but that’s not the case for everyone. In several EU countries, the choice of the commissioner is a sensitive exercise, and the portfolio is often linked with the candidate. 

“The later you enter the game, the bigger the chance you’ll miss out,” another EU official said. 

And then there’s the European Parliament (again). Once the team is assembled and the portfolios handed out, each commissioner (apart from von der Leyen) will face a grilling from the relevant parliamentary committees in the fall or maybe even winter. MEPs usually reject one or two prospective commissioners, forcing the countries in question to send someone else. In this Parliament, with a greater number of MEPs from outside the center, there could be even more casualties.

Jacopo Barigazzi contributed reporting.