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Jamie Dettmer is opinion editor at POLITICO Europe.
Of course, it was never in doubt that Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich would be found guilty of espionage — the acquittal rate in criminal trials held before a judge in Russia is only 0.34 percent.
Plus, when it comes to politically motivated show trials orchestrated by the Kremlin, that rate is a consistent zero. So, a guilty verdict was always certain. The only question was what length of sentence the judge was going to hand down.
And as the rushed final stage of the case concluded on Friday, there was no mercy. Gershkovich was given 16 years to be served in a strict-regime penal colony — that’s only two years short of what Russian prosecutors had requested.
But the case appeared to be rushed through. Why?
When the 32-year-old was arrested in March last year, he became the first American journalist detained on espionage charges since Nicholas Daniloff at the height of the Cold War in 1986. It came as a shock not just to casual observers but to journalists who have experience reporting from Russia — including this columnist. However, it clearly underlined how things had changed in the country since President Vladimir Putin launched his brutal full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Before the invasion, Russian authorities were already making it difficult for foreign reporters to work in the country — denying and delaying visas and media accreditation, requiring local support staff to register as “foreign agents,” forcing them to file burdensome paperwork and, of course, there could be physical harassment and highly obvious surveillance aimed to intimidate.
But detaining an American journalist on an espionage charge marked a significant escalation in the hostility shown toward the foreign media. It also showed the Kremlin’s readiness to copy the Iranian tactic of hostage-taking. Gershkovich’s sentence is only compounding the shock.
As noted in a 2022 U.S. State Department report on human rights in Russia, judges are “subject to influence from the executive branch, the armed forces, and other security forces, particularly in high-profile or politically sensitive cases.” So, it stands to reason that this harsh sentence was dictated from the top. It’s both sending a message and likely piling pressure on Washington to offer something the Kremlin wants — namely, a prisoner swap with the U.S.
Putin has previously said he’s open to the possibility of a trade. And the most likely candidate for an exchange is the assassin Vadim Krasikov, who’s currently serving a life sentence in Germany. Krasikov was convicted for murdering an exile Chechen-Georgian dissident in Berlin in 2019, and at his sentencing, the German judge noted the kill order most likely came from Putin himself.
Later, when pressed about the American journalist in a February interview with Tucker Carlson, the Russian leader implied Moscow would be open to swap Gershkovich for Krasikov. “We are willing to solve it, but there are certain terms being discussed via special services channels. I believe an agreement can be reached,” Putin said. He then tellingly referred to an individual who “due to patriotic sentiments, eliminated a bandit in one of the European capitals.”
Another possible, or even additional, candidate for a swap would be Roman Seleznev — the son of a Russian lawmaker who was convicted in Washington state in 2016 for committing cyber fraud against thousands of American businesses. Seleznev was given a 27-year jail term, the longest ever hacking-related sentence in U.S. judicial history.
U.S. officials aren’t currently offering any comment on a possible swap, which is understandable given that loose lips could doom negotiations — something the Kremlin already highlighted. Talking to international journalists at an economic forum earlier this month, “such issues are not resolved through the media,” Putin warned. “They like a quiet, calm, professional approach and dialogue between intelligence agencies. And, of course, they should be resolved only on the basis of reciprocity.”
But a senior U.S. diplomat, who asked for anonymity to be able speak more freely, told POLITICO that he actually drew some small comfort from the harsh sentence, as well as the acceleration of the trial proceedings.
Gershkovich wasn’t due in court this month. His trial was actually scheduled for mid-August in the courthouse in Russia’s Ural Mountains capital of Yekaterinburg, where he was initially detained. Moreover, the trial only consisted of two hearings, and the first session only occurred last month. That’s quick — even by the standards of Russian injustice. And Russian officials had previously stated that any prisoner trade could only happen once a verdict was reached.
So, the only thing that remains to be seen now is if Putin is willing to gift U.S. President Joe Biden a swap that could help his reelection efforts, or if he’ll wait for the possibility of former President Donald Trump being reelected and reward him instead to spark a bromance.
