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The Democrats think that “hope is making a comeback”, as former first lady Michelle Obama put it in her speech to the Democratic National Convention (DNC). The party has recently begun to pick up more votes in the ever-crucial swing states (those that often move between Republicans and Democrats) that will determine the outcome of the presidential election in November.
But as Barack Obama pointed out in his DNC speech, the race is still tight and the party has lots of work to do to win the election. As we see it, there are five key issues that have particular resonance in those swing states (which include Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Wisconsin) and that have both immediate and long-term significance.
1. The economy, again
If the economy is robust, voters will forgive much else. The state of the economy affects the daily costs in people’s lives. Even though much of what determines economics fortunes is beyond a president’s control, it is almost always a major factor in how people vote.
In the last few weeks, economic indicators started to suggest the US economy might be edging towards recession, however things are now looking more positive. Unfortunately for the Biden-Harris administration, polls in 2024 regularly showed more Americans perceiving the economy as doing badly, even when it wasn’t.
Other polling suggested that these opinions were often based on dramatic misperceptions of the state of the economy, with over half believing the country to be in recession. In reality the economy had experienced consistent growth for nearly two years. Despite the White House’s boasts about Bidenomics, Trump had a significant lead on trust on the economy.
The primary economic grievance was inflation through 2021 and 2022, which reached a 40-year high. By this summer, however, the inflation rate had been on a downward path for two years, but prices are still rising.
Voters were not necessarily being irrational by worrying about when income gains would catch up with higher prices. It was frustrating for the Biden administration that the public seemed unimpressed by measures put in place designed to promote long-term economic growth.
While not deviating massively from Biden’s economic agenda, Harris has laid out plans that should offer some bipartisan voter appeal, including expanded child tax credit and home-buying incentives.
2. Immigration
If one issue defines Donald Trump’s political identity it is his assertion that the country has lost control of its borders. His 2016 campaign promised to build a wall across the US-Mexican border and his administration implemented controversial measures to deter crossings.
In 2024 Republicans consistently attacked the Biden-Harris administration for allowing what they termed “chaos” to return to the southern border. They repeatedly referred to drug cartels, violent criminals and even terrorists exploiting the “weak” enforcement efforts, even as the Biden administration took executive action to reduce the numbers of migrants who could claim asylum.
This attack line continued as Harris replaced Biden as Republicans had labelled her the disastrous “border czar” as early as 2021 when she was given the role of co-ordinating with Central American countries to reduce numbers of people heading for the US. Harris is already talking up her policies which will include a focus on balancing border security legislation with pathways for undocumented migrant citizenship.
3. Reproductive rights
Since 1980, presidential campaigns had been marked by Republican candidates proclaiming their opposition to abortion. This involved nominating justices to the supreme court who would rule to restrict abortion access.
This strategy achieved its goal in June 2022 when the court ruling in Dobbs v Jackson Women’s Health Organization overturned the 1973 Rose v Wade decision providing a constitutional right to an abortion. This has become somewhat of a political liability for Republicans.
Since Dobbs, six states have balloted on constitutional amendments regarding abortion access and in all cases the pro-choice side won. Trump has tried to massage his position by saying on abortion decisions should be left to states, but the Harris team is campaigning aggressively on what they see as a vote-winning issue.
While this is obviously not a priority for all, those who care greatly about abortion access include crucial voters groups such as suburban women in swing states. Harris can also voice her stance on this issue more freely than Catholic Joe Biden.
4. Foreign policy
It is a truth (fairly) universally acknowledged that foreign policy is not a top voter priority, but there are two international conflicts that are disrupting the US political landscape, and may influence people at the ballot box. Importantly, the divisions are as much within the parties as between them.
Recent campus protests relating to the conflict between Israel and Hamas have hit the headlines. Some coverage exaggerates the importance to younger voters, but the Harris campaign is concerned that some pro-Palestinian activists will not vote because they feel the Biden administration has been too supportive of Israel. There are demonstrators on this outside the DNC all week, making their criticism known.
The war in Ukraine has divided congressional Republicans with an aid package delayed for months due to Republican obstruction in the House. This war may not feature much on the campaign trail, but, if Trump returns to the White House, Ukraine and its allies will be anxious about the US reducing support.
5. Democracy
Democracy has been on the ballot before, as recently as 2022. It is a concern for Democrats and Republicans, albeit in different ways.
A majority of Trump supporters, wrongly, believe that their candidate actually won the 2020 election. In contrast, many still have vivid memories of the chaotic violence that took place at the Capitol on January 6 2021.
These are the issues that are likely to bring people out to vote in November. The “brat summer” for Harris is almost over, and she’ll need to outline her commitment on these issues in advance of November 5.
The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
