How To Fine-Tune AI For Prosperity

Artificial intelligence could put us on the path to a booming economic future, but getting there will take some serious course corrections.

When Chad Syverson loads the US Bureau of Labor Statistics website these days looking for the latest data on productivity, he does so with a sense of optimism that he hasn’t felt in ages.

The numbers for the last year or so have been generally strong for various financial and business reasons, rebounding from the early days of the pandemic. And though the quarterly numbers are notoriously noisy and inconsistent, the University of Chicago economist is scrutinizing the data to spot any early clues that AI-driven economic growth has begun.

Any effect on the current statistics, he says, will likely still be quite small and won’t be “world-changing,” so he’s not surprised that signs of AI’s impact haven’t been detected yet. But he’s watching closely, with the hope that over the next few years AI could help reverse a two-decade slump in productivity growth that is undermining much of the economy. If that does happen, Syverson says, “then it is world changing.”

The newest versions of generative AI are bedazzling, with lifelike videos, seemingly expert-sounding prose, and other all too humanlike behaviors. Business leaders are fretting over how to reinvent their companies as billions flow into startups, and the big AI companies are creating ever more powerful models. Predictions abound on how ChatGPT and the growing list of large language models will transform the way we work and organize our lives, providing instant advice on everything from financial investments to where to spend your next vacation and how to get there.[…]