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The conflict in Ukraine has increased in its intensity with the firing of what Russia has claimed to be an inter-continental ballistic missile (ICBM) on the Ukrainian city of Dnipro in late November. The missile carried six conventional warheards, which struck the city in an attack which the BBC reported lasted for about three hours, but caused limited damage on the ground.
A few days later, the Russian president said he would use the new missiles to turn targets in Kyiv “to dust”, increasing the pressure on the Ukrainian government as Russian troops continued to make advances in the country’s east. The Oreshnik missile fired on November was not equipped with nuclear warheads, although Putin said the weapon was “comparable in strength to a nuclear strike” if enough missiles were aimed at a target:
The kinetic impact is powerful, like a meteorite falling. We know in history what meteorites have fallen where, and what the consequences were. Sometimes it was enough for whole lakes to form.
There has been some dispute as to whether the Oreshnik meets the accepted understanding of what an ICBM actually is (it has been classified by western governments as an intermediate range ballistic missile (IRBM)). The Kremlin claims the missile is “unstoppable” and it certainly poses a grave threat given the speed at which it found its target – 15 minutes from Kapustin Yar, in Russia’s Astrakhan region to Dnipro in central Ukraine, about 900kms away.
The equivalent in Nato’s arsenal would be the Minuteman III IRBM system that is primarily designed for the delivery of nuclear weapons. It is not clear if this missile system is capable of carrying and delivering conventional ordnance as well as nuclear warheads.
Once fired the Oreshnik uses its rocket engines to accelerate quickly until it reaches the upper part of the Earth’s atmosphere, where the first stage rockets are jettisoned, having run out of fuel.
The multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle (MIRV) is then released and travels through space to the target area. It is at this point the the system is at its most vulnerable to interception, as it is travelling at its slowest. Finally, thrusters orientate the MIRV to allow it to find its target zone.
The six warheads can then be independently targeted. It is this particular aspect that makes defence against this missile so difficult to accomplish – the targets are not known until the very last moment. The re-entry trajectory from the edge of the atmosphere allows the missile system to build the speed that makes tracking and destruction a difficult task to accomplish.
Moscow has justified using this new ballistic missiles by blaming the relaxation by the US, UK and other allies of previous restrictions on Kyiv to allow it to hit targets inside Russia. But deeper and darker forces may be at play that have led to this decision.
The Russian economy is in freefall, with restrictions on the purchase of foreign currency being imposed in an attempt to stabilise the ruble after it fell heavily against foreign currencies.
This drop in the value of Russia’s currency will severely hamper Moscow’s efforts to purchase the necessary raw materials and components that are required to support its defence manufacturing base. There’s also a degree of performance politics being played here by the Kremlin.
Being able to boast about this new cutting-edge missiles is a useful distraction for a population struggling against Russia’s exceptionally high inflation.
How does it compare with the west’s arsenal?
How does the Oreshnik system stack up against the two major missile systems that are being supplied by western governments to Ukraine: Storm Shadow and the army tactical missile system (Atacms)? Storm Shadow is an air-to-ground cruise missile system with a range of around 155 miles, which can travel at more than 600 miles per hour.
This relatively short range is considerably less than Oreshnik, but this far the range has been irrelevant as the weapon has been used to strike targets on Ukrainian territory currently held by Russian forces.
So, despite the fact that the restrictions against striking targets in Russia has been lifted, the shorter range of the system means that there are still limits to what can be attacked.
Atacms is a similar missile system to Storm Shadow with a similar range of about 180 miles (although it is surface to surface, and is designed for the purpose of engaging infantry and armoured forces on the battlefield). Its point of difference is the warheads it can carry. The Atacms’ conventional warheads make this a more flexible battlefield weapon than either the Oreshnik or Stormshadow. It can be used against a greater range of targets.
One single 225kg high explosive warhead enables the missile to destroy large buildings or targets that have been fortified. The other is a warhead that is able to deploy miniature cluster warheads that can attack and destroy lightly armoured forces.
Putin’s claims about its Oreshnik missile are suitably theatrical – presumably for international political and strategic effect as well as potential domestic consumption in Russia. But there’s little doubt that if Russia uses it against Ukraine’s cities it will cause widespread damage and cause misery for the civilian population.
Matthew Powell does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
