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The Kremlin is refusing to comment on speculation Russian air defence may have accidentally caused an Azerbaijan airliner crash which killed 38 people yesterday.
The plane was travelling in a north-west direction, from Azerbaijan’s Baku to Grozny, in the Chechen republic of Russia, when it veered off course and headed eastwards across the Caspian Sea before crashing in Kazakhstan, near Aktau.
There were 29 survivors among all the Azerbaijanis, Russians, Kazakhs and people from Kyrgyzstan on board.
Russia’s aviation watchdog initially said the incident occurred after a collision with birds.
However, there are doubts over this official explanation as an issue with birds usually triggers an immediate landing.
This plane continued to fly off-course for hundreds of miles after it encountered a problem mid-flight.
Images of the wreckage appear to show holes in the plane similar to shrapnel or bullet marks.
Military analysts speculated that this could have been caused by Moscow’s air defence missiles, especially as 50 Ukrainian drones hit southern Russia shortly before the plane crashed.
But, according to Russian state news agency TASS, Vladimir Putin’s spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, told reporters: “Currently an investigation is in progress. Any air incident should be investigated by specialised aviation authorities.
“It is necessary to wait for the end of this probe.”
“It would be wrong to build any hypotheses before the panel of inquiry presents its conclusions. Of course, we cannot do that. No one should do it,” he added.
Similarly, Azerbaijan president and Putin ally Ilham Aliyev said it was too soon to speculate over the cause but suggested bad weather may have forced the airliner to alter its course.
He said Thursday would be a day of mourning, adding: “This is a great tragedy, that has become a tremendous sorrow for the Azerbaijani people.”
Their remarks come after a pro-Kremlin military blogger, Yuriy Podolyaka, said the damage to the plane seemed consistent “with an air defence missile, detonating from the side and above”.
He wrote on the social media platform Telegram: “Survivors recall a ‘bang’ during its third foggy landing attempt in Grozny before redirection to Makhachala.
“It may have been caught in a defence response to an attack on Grozny.”
Similarly, aviation security firm Osprey Flight Solutions speculated that it was “likely” shot down by Russian military air-defence system, as did a Ukrainian national security official Andriy Kovalenko in a post on X.
Kovalenko wrote: “An Embraer 190 aircraft of an Azerbaijani airline, flying from Baku to Grozny, was shot down by a Russian air defence system.
“However, admitting this is inconvenient for everyone, so efforts will be made to cover it up, even the holes in the remaining parts of the aircraft.
There is also video footage from inside the plane during the flight, showing punctured life vests and other damage.
“Russia should have closed the airspace over Grozny but failed to do so. The plane was damaged by the Russians and was sent to Kazakhstan instead of being urgently landed in Grozny to save lives. In one word – Russia.”
