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Germany’s conservative victors in Sunday’s election are considering circumventing strict spending rules in order to adopt a potentially massive defense package as alarm grows that the United States will no longer protect Europe within NATO.
That move could come within weeks. Workarounds to Germany’s constitutional spending restraints require a two-thirds majority in parliament, which could allow two parties that finished strongly in the Feb. 23 vote — the far-right, pro-Kremlin Alternative for Germany (AfD) and The Left, which opposes military spending — to block the package.
Germany’s newly-elected lawmakers must convene by March 25, potentially giving the current parliament just weeks to act.
Lawmakers have confirmed that talks on a potential defense spending package — and how to finance it — are taking place. Friedrich Merz, the conservative leader set to become Germany’s next chancellor, was guarded when asked about the possibility by a reporter on Tuesday.
“We are talking to each other, but it is far too early to say anything about it now,” he said. “I see it as very difficult at the moment. But as I said, there are talks. That’s all I can say.”
Earlier in the day, Jens Spahn, deputy leader of the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) parliamentary group, confirmed that a defense spending package was under discussion.
“Friedrich Merz has indicated that he will hold talks, including with the FDP and the Greens,” Spahn said on German television. “We will see whether and what decisions we make in the coming weeks.”
Merz and outgoing German Chancellor Olaf Scholz of the Social Democratic Party (SPD) met for well over an hour in Berlin on Tuesday. According to a Bloomberg report, Merz approached the SPD to negotiate a €200 billion special defense spending package. When asked about it Tuesday, Merz said he could “neither confirm nor deny” that sum.
Germany’s so-called debt brake was written into the constitution by then-Chancellor Angela Merkel in 2009 and limits the structural budget deficit to 0.35 percent of gross domestic product, expect in emergencies.
Lawmakers believe that declaring an emergency to finance defense spending will not suffice to address the country’s massive long-term needs. Alternatives include constitutional reform to alter the debt brake, or a special fund for defense spending — but both options would also require a two-thirds majority in parliament.
On Tuesday, Merz ruled out a wider reform of the debt brake in the coming weeks, making a special fund the most likely option.
“It is out of the question that we will reform the debt brake in the near future,” he told reporters. “If it happens at all, it will be quite extensive and difficult work.”
In the immediate wake of Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s left-leaning coalition and the conservative opposition agreed on a €100 billion special fund for military armament, providing a precedent for similar action now.
Winning such a majority for a special fund, however, would be a formidable challenge even in the current parliament. Left-leaning parties want looser spending restraints not only for defense spending but also for infrastructure and investment. Conservatives, meanwhile, want to maintain fiscal discipline while loosening spending restraints only for defense.
“Why should I accept that we are only talking about security when the entire German economy is demanding that the debt brake be reformed?” asked Katharina Dröge, one of the parliamentary group leaders of the Greens.
Dröge said Merz had not yet approached the Greens to discuss a defense spending package, but that the party was ready to negotiate.
The Left party rejected money for arms outright.
“We will support a reform or abolition of the debt brake if it enables investment in the future of our country,” said Heidi Reichinnek, co-leader of The Left. “If attempts are again made to provide even more resources for this via a special fund or certain clauses that lead to even more armament, then Die Linke will say a clear no. No, we are against rearmament.”
The discussion comes amid growing alarm in Germany over the stance of the Trump administration toward Ukraine and European defense. After the Sunday election, Merz said Europe must be prepared to go it alone on its defense.
“My absolute priority will be to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible so that, step by step, we can really achieve independence from the USA,” he said.
“I never thought I would have to say something like this on a television program. But after Donald Trump’s statements last week … it is clear that the Americans, at least this part of the Americans, this administration, are largely indifferent to the fate of Europe.”
