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Portugal will head to the polls on May 18 for an early parliamentary election—its third in just over three years—following the collapse of the centre-right minority government. President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa announced the decision on Thursday, two days after the government lost a parliamentary confidence vote.
The widely expected move to dissolve parliament and call a snap election came after consultations with major political parties and the president’s advisory Council of State, which unanimously supported the decision. Until a new parliament is formed, Prime Minister Luis Montenegro’s administration will function in a caretaker capacity.
The crisis was triggered when Montenegro presented a confidence motion in response to opposition threats of a parliamentary inquiry into his family’s data protection consultancy. The opposition alleged that Montenegro, as prime minister, had indirectly benefited from the company’s contracts with private firms. While prosecutors are reviewing some claims, no formal investigation is underway.
President Rebelo de Sousa acknowledged that the election was “most likely no one expected or wanted,” lamenting that the controversy surrounding Montenegro would dominate the campaign. He urged a “clear, direct, but calm, dignified electoral debate.”
Montenegro’s Social Democratic Party (PSD) has rallied behind him, blaming the opposition for the crisis. However, analysts suggest that Montenegro himself is responsible for the political turmoil, and opinion polls indicate he may have lost public trust.
Recent surveys show the opposition Socialists slightly ahead of Montenegro’s alliance, though both hover around 30%, suggesting little change from last year’s election. The far-right Chega party remains in third place, though slightly below its 18% result from 2023, following scandals involving senior members.
Despite repeated political crises, Portugal’s economy has remained resilient, with stronger growth than most EU nations, budget surpluses, and reduced debt under both centre-left and centre-right governments. Economists predict that another election is unlikely to pose immediate economic risks.
However, voter frustration is mounting. Many Portuguese are weary of repeated elections that fail to deliver stable governance, leading analysts to expect higher abstention rates this time. Last year’s election saw a record 6.47 million voters turn out—900,000 more than in 2022—benefiting the anti-establishment Chega. Whether this trend continues remains to be seen as Portugal prepares for yet another crucial vote.
Melissa Enoch
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