Holland-era Oilers have (massively) improved as each season goes along. Next step: extend that into June

One thing that didn’t change much? The team stunk all year long.

These numbers certainly confirm that:

A bit of a wide format to our chart, but the objective is to show the team’s results on 2 different, fairly parallel, tracks: wins and losses on the one side, goals for and against on the other. The points and goals percentages of the two half-seasons are highlighted in yellow, and the Oilers rank in each of those highlighted categories against the league as whole. (Bear in mind throughout that points percentage will always be a little higher because of the NHL’s Cockamamie Points System™ where the midpoint is somewhere in the range of .555, whereas the goal share is based on a zero sum game a.k.a. “generally accepted accounting principles” where every goal for is balanced by a goal against, with a rock solid mean of exactly .500. Note also that ersatz shootout “goals” are not included here.)

The 2018-19 Oilers ranked between 22nd and 25th on both sides of the sheet, be it the first half of the season, the second, or the whole sorry campaign. Leon Draisaitl joined Connor McDavid as an elite scorer, with both of them ranked in the league’s top four point producers. Still, the Oilers ranked a lousy 20th (of 31 teams) in goals for, an even more wretched 26th in goals against, and 24th in the combination of the two. 25th in the overall standings. Wherever you look, bottom third of the league.

Time for a change.

The arrival of Ken Holland and Dave Tippett, Year One

Both the new GM and his chosen coach were known commodities to say the least, having played the game professionally in the 1980s and been on the scene in one job or another ever since. Holland set to work trying to rebuild the bottom six with veteran pros, though for the purposes of this post we will only consider in-season transactions that impacted the squad.

This was the (first) season of COVID. I have chosen to identify the first 41 games as its first half, which was unfolding like any normal season with the usual milestones — the holiday break at the halfway point, the trade deadline just past the three-quarter mark. Suddenly, WHAM, season over. My take is that all of those games were lost from the final quarter.

The Oilers started fast under Tippett, winning 7 of their first 8. They fell on hard times in Nov/Dec and crashed down the standings, all the way to 23rd overall after Game 41. Draisaitl was mired in a dreadful slump, Oscar Klefbom was mired in a dreadful slump, Mike Smith was mired in a dreadful slump, pretty much everyone else was in a garden-variety slump.

The Christmas break ended after Game 41. With his roster unfrozen Holland sent out veteran F Markus Granlund and D Brandon Manning to the AHL, recalling youngsters F Kailer Yamamoto and D William Lagesson to replace them. Yamamoto made a big impact straight away, Draisaitl responded to his new linemate in a big way, and the Oilers were on their way. In the second “half” their points percentage was 113 basis points higher than the first, soaring from the 23rd best in the league all the way to 6th (and 12th over the two halves combined). An even bigger jump (23rd to 4th) was realized in goal share, with roughly three-quarters of that upgrade in the offensive end.

The Oilers were cruising into the playoffs when COVID slammed the door on the season and made a mockery of the late-summer playoffs, not to mention of Holland’s acquisitions at the trade deadline. A very sour taste to end a promising season

Year Two

This was a wacky campaign that didn’t even start until mid-January (no chance for that annual December slide!) and ran through mid-May. It was just 56 games in length, with only seven opponents all season long in the one-year-only North (Canadian) Division. The Oilers played nothing but one-anthem games all season long, with no fans attending any of them. With international travel restrictions in place, trades were few and far between; and with taxi squads for much of the year, most call-ups were local calls.

The Oilers received a bitter blow in this season with the permanent loss of Oscar Klefbom with three years to run on his value contract. While Darnell Nurse carried plenty of the load, there was a gap at 2LD until Dmitri Kulikov was added at the deadline. That solidified the squad down the stretch.

This was the year with the least differential between the two halves. Still the Oilers improved by 72 basis points in Pts% and significantly in goal share as well, especially on the defensive side of the puck. Their ranking improved by five spots and into the NHL’s top ten in both categories. But they ran into a hot goalie in Connor Hellebuyck in the opening round and lost four consecutive close games to Winnipeg, three of them in overtime. BAM, season over.

Year Three

Another good start went into the crapper with yet another dismal December that carried through January as the Oilers dealt with a number of postponements. By early February the team had slid to the wrong side of the playoff cut line, prompting Holland to finally cut the cord on Tippett and defensive assistant Jim Playfair, replacing them their counterparts in Bakersfield, Jay Woodcroft and Dave Manson. The change took place after Game 44 so the 41/41 splits don’t cover it quite perfectly but are close.

Looks like two different teams. The first half crew ranked smack dab in the middle of the pack in both Pts% and GF%, while in the second half the Oilers were top five in the NHL in both departments. Goals for went up by 0.41 per game, goals against went down by 0.46.

Besides the mid-season switcheroo behind the bench, another big change came around the same time with the addition of unexpected free agent Evander Kane. Holland added useful defenceman Brett Kulak for a pick at the deadline to solidify the back end. The Oilers would finally hit the playoffs on the front foot. They toppled the Kings in a seven-game thriller and blew out the Flames in a highly satisfying five-game Battle of Alberta before meeting their match and then some in Colorado Avalanche, who went on to win the Cup.

Year Four

Which brings us to the season just past. Woodcroft was here right from training camp, yet once again the Oilers were slow to make their mark. Their record at the halfway point was slightly worse  than the prior year under Tippett. The squad ranked fifth in the Pacific, 10th in the West, 20th in the NHL, and seemed to be going nowhere fast.

Then came a fabulous 29-6-6 second half that even outperformed Woodcroft’s 26-9-3 that finished out 2021-22. Edmonton’s 78% point share and 60% goal share were truly elite, ranking (barely) behind Boston Bruins in an historic season. Difference was Boston did it all year long. The second-half Oilers raised their output by nearly a full goal per game at the attacking end, and were nearly half a goal better on the defensive side of things.

A couple of significant moves in there. First was the recall of towering defender Vincent Desharnais after Game 41, later the big trade for Mattias Ekholm following Game 61. Both solved problems behind the Oilers’ blueline, and Ekholm solved some issues in other zones as well.

Holland made a trio of trades at the deadline that saw Tyson Barrie and Jesse Puljujarvi turned into Ekholm and Nick Bjugstad, with enough cap space left over to accommodate other veterans on slightly bigger tickets and an enlarged roster. The Oilers that finished out the season 18-2-1 were a significantly-improved squad, and those in-season trades and call-ups were a significant contributor.

How much did the 2022-23 Oilers pick up the pace?

But… then came the playoffs. The Oil managed to hold off the Kings in six games, but didn’t have the answers for Vegas Golden Knights in Round Two. The Vegans prevailed, and like the Avs last year, went on to capture the Stanley Cup while the Oilers went on to wonder “what if?”

Summary

Four years of Ken Holland, four years of qualifying for the playoffs. Four years of marginal first half of season, four years of good-to-dominant back half.

Those trends are noticeable within each individual season, but over the four years combined are overwhelming. The Oilers have been a top-ten NHL team in both points and goal share over that span, this despite being truly mediocre in the first half all four years. The second half record is stellar in both departments, with Edmonton ranking an average of fifth place in both. Indeed, throughout this exercise we’ve seen very strong correlation between goals and wins. (Go figure!) Which does suggest that those fine winning records have been bought and paid for.

Yet the post-season results leave most Oilers fans thirsting for more. In both 2022 and 2023 the squad was in good position entering the playoffs but couldn’t get the puck over the goal line. Beaten by good teams, hampered by injuries to key players, a bounce here, a call there, a suspension somewhere else… Call them all excuses if you like but it’s hard to deny this team is close.

My take is that the Oil would be well-served to stake their claim early in the season and just keep on staking it. They’ve encountered far too much of a grind simply to qualify for the playoffs, with the team having to overcome a mid-season standings deficit in three of Holland’s seasons. The cost of doing business is that the coaches have tended to shorten their bench and overtax their stars. That has long term consequences on multiple levels. Including, possibly, that the team peaks too early, doing so during the long streaks of good play they’ve needed simply to qualify for the post season.

Hey, Oilers, want to convince this observer you’re a true contender? Come out in 2023-24 and dominate the first part of the season. Develop a cushion big enough that you can experiment with young players and maybe even give a star a night off once in a while if he’s banged up or simply overtaxed. Rather than needing a heater simply to make the post-season, here’s a better plan: leave no doubt at any point, be it October or March. Or especially, December.