Building A Yellow Wall? Can Ed Davey And His New MPs Capitalise On Their Election Triumph?

At the end of the 1972 film The Candidate, newly-elected US senator Bill McKay, played by Robert Redford, asks his adviser Marvin Lucas a simple question: “What do we do now?”

It is a question which could equally have been asked of Sir Ed Davey, the leader of the Liberal Democrats, as his party gathers in Brighton this weekend for its first conference since its outstanding result at the general election in July.

The Lib Dems saw their representation in parliament soar from 15 MPs to 72, allowing them to reclaim from the SNP their position as third-biggest party in the Commons.

With the Tories reduced to a rump of 121 MPs, the result has presented Davey with a golden opportunity to present his party as the true opposition to a Labour government with a huge parliamentary majority.

So far, however, it has sometimes appeared as though the Lib Dems are caught between two stools, unsure whether to attack the Labour government or what remains of the Conservatives.

Polling by Savanta, exclusively shared with HuffPost UK, highlights the party’s dilemma.

It shows that voters believe that with Labour in power, the Lib Dems need to “rediscover their purpose”.

Awkwardly for Davey, the research also reveals that Lib Dem voters are pretty happy with the job Keir Starmer is doing so far as prime minister.

They are the only group, apart from Labour supporters, who give the new PM a positive approval rating. And nearly a third – 30% – say they like Starmer and his policies.

Chris Hopkins, political research director at Savanta told HuffPost UK: “Liberal Democrat voters are broadly pretty happy – with the direction of government, the issues they’re tackling and Keir Starmer himself.

“That’s a problem for Ed Davey and his team, as it means they need to find a balance and ultimately rediscover their purpose, now that they’re holding Labour to account, rather than the Conservatives.

“The Liberal Democrats are clearly in the strongest position they’ve been in some while, and are likely looking forward to party conference.

“Through a mixture of message discipline on the NHS and sewage, they’ve taken down the Blue Wall. But the question now is where next? Do you attempt to make further inroads with a depleted Conservative party, or start focusing your ire at the government – who your voters quite like?”

Separate research by the More in Common think-tank, also seen by HuffPost UK, suggests the Lib Dems have a golden opportunity to do even better at the next election – if they have the courage to grasp it.

Focus groups with Lib Dem voters showed they want the party to be a “competent and distinctive” opposition, pushing Labour for tougher action on climate change and a closer relationship with the EU.

Chris Annous of More in Common said the 72 Lib Dem MPs also need to “establish themselves as community champions” if they want to return to parliament at the next election.

“There is room for pushing for a closer relationship with Europe and a quicker timetable on climate action in a way that is unlikely to backfire either in the Blue Wall or the Liberal Democrats own ‘Yellow Wall’, that now extends from Eastbourne to Exmoor, but can instead help the party establish themselves as a distinctive opposition to Labour,” he said. 

“It’s quite clear that the Tories have gone into a even greater degree of meltdown since July 4, and their leadership election is going on until November.

“We’ve already demonstrated that we’re an effective opposition. One example is on Labour’s decision to cut winter fuel payments. That doesn’t feel like the change that people voted for.”

A senior Lib Dem source said: “A lot of people voted for us to get rid of the Tories, but if you look at the polling, the top reason was because of our position on the NHS and care, so it’s really important that we continue to campaign on that issue.

“People put their trust in us at the election and now we need to work hard to keep that trust.

“If you look at the seats where we’re now in second place, they are Conservative-facing. The way we think we can defeat more Tories next time is by being a better opposition than them. We’re going to be united and coherent while they tear themselves apart.”

Ed Davey spent the election campaign as if he was on a six-week long stag trip, paddleboarding, surfing, salsa dancing and bungee-jumping his way around the country.

For him and his party, the serious business of holding Labour to account while consigning the Tories to irrelevance starts now.