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OTTAWA — With a majority of his caucus now calling on him to resign, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is on a ski holiday, reflecting on whether to stay or go.
Trudeau is way down in the polls and facing challenges from within his party about whether he’s the right leader to unite Canadians. His decision comes as Canada braces for a tariff war when Donald Trump returns to the White House in three weeks.
Canadians will head to the polls in 2025, a federal election that could be triggered in late January if Trudeau’s foes topple the minority government when the House returns from break.
“Prime Minister Justin Trudeau no longer has the support of caucus and to maintain some dignity he should immediately tender his resignation,” Calgary lawmaker George Chahal wrote in a Dec. 27 letter to the caucus.
The missive follows a recent virtual meeting during which 51 Liberal members of Parliament from Ontario discussed Trudeau’s leadership. After the gathering, the party’s largest caucus group relayed a message to the prime minister: Resign.
“We’ve reached a breaking point,” said one Liberal who attended the meeting, and was granted anonymity to speak freely. “There’s a critical mass now that has been reached and that was not in place before.”
For a year Trudeau has faced calls to step down from the party he’s led since 2013. Demands intensified after the explosive exit of Chrystia Freeland earlier this month. Trudeau’s long-time ally quit as deputy prime minister and head of finance citing tension between their offices over how to handle Trump’s tariff threat along with a domestic holiday tax break.
Canada’s prime minister has also been abandoned by his Atlantic caucus, a group Trudeau’s team considered vital to any hopes it had of winning a fourth term.
The Atlantic Liberals now say it’s in the best interest of the prime minister to resign. The lawmakers no longer believe Trudeau can beat Pierre Poilievre, a populist conservative who has made massive inroads with Canadians by capitalizing off of a housing and affordability crisis with simple slogans that promise change. They also warn that Canada could be catapulted toward instability if Trump makes good on his Day 1 promise to slap a 25 percent tariff on all Canadian goods.
“Time is of the essence, and our Caucus is of the view that it is not tenable for you to remain as the Leader, and that we need to allow for the necessary conversations on transition to take place,” Atlantic Caucus chair Kody Blois wrote to the prime minister on Dec. 23.
A senior Liberal source, who was granted anonymity to speak freely, said the letters won’t rush Trudeau’s reflection. The prime minister is with his family on a British Columbia ski vacation and expected to remain out of office until Jan. 6.
The Prime Minister’s Office did not respond to repeated requests for comment.
Liberal caucus members expect an answer when Trudeau lands back in Ottawa. Some want an emergency meeting to hear directly from their boss. Others say they won’t run again if he sticks around.
There is no mechanism within the party to turf Trudeau, so it’s a decision he’ll have to make on his own. If he decides to step down, the Liberal Party constitution states that its board would select an interim leader.
“His thinking right now is less about his political legacy,” the senior Liberal source said, and more about “leaving the party in the best shape as possible” and ensuring there’s a plan in place.
Trudeau was presented with data on his party’s fortunes in early December — before Freeland resigned. The prime minister’s inner circle saw a pathway to a minority government win based on strong voter turnout in Quebec, shoring up Atlantic caucus support, and on appealing to Canadians through kitchen-table economics.
Chair of the Quebec caucus, Stéphane Lauzon, wouldn’t comment on reports that he’s been instructed to inform Trudeau that Liberal lawmakers in his province want him gone.
“No letter has been sent to the Prime Minister from the Quebec caucus. Unfortunately, what happens in the Quebec caucus stays in the caucus,” Lauzon said in a statement to POLITICO.
Trudeau continues to bring in more money through fundraising than any other Liberal MP — a calculation that may be fueling his indecision, the senior source said. There is no obvious choice to replace him as leader. Many Canadians would be unable to recognize other possible contenders including Finance Minister Dominic LeBlanc, Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly or Innovation Minister François-Philippe Champagne.
Some observers say Freeland wants Trudeau’s job. At least one lawmaker is publicly touting the former journalist’s “exceptional political acumen” and encouraging a leadership bid.
“Whether by design or circumstance, she had emerged as a credible and stable alternative to your leadership,” Liberal MP Chandra Arya wrote in a letter to Trudeau.
“Despite your low approval ratings, my support for you stemmed from the lack of a viable and reassuring alternative. Chrystia has now filled that void.”
