Europe is heading for a demographic downsize, with its population expected to shrink by 11.7 percent or 53 million people by 2100 according to a new Eurostat forecast published Thursday.
The decline won’t start right away, as the bloc’s population is even expected to edge up slightly to peak at 453 million by 2029. But after that the EU will enter a prolonged slide to under 400 million by the end of the century, with fewer young people and working-age adults, and more than double the current share of over-80s.
The culprit? Europeans are having fewer children. Fertility rates have dropped to around 1.3 births per woman — well below replacement level — and are still falling.
In France, where deaths outpaced births in 2025 for the first time since the end of World War II, President Emmanuel Macron has called for “demographic rearmament,” warning that falling birth rates are tied to rising infertility and people having children later in life. In February Paris urged 29-year-olds to have children while they still can, while announcing plans to expand fertility services and increase support for families.
The demographic shift will mean fewer workers and more retirees across Europe, putting extra pressure on pension systems and healthcare services as the population ages.
Migration has helped to offset the population decline in recent years, but can’t fully compensate for falling birth rates, according to research by the European Parliament. Yet policies are tightening: In Germany, Chancellor Friedrich Merz proposed last month that around 80 percent of the Syrians currently living in Germany should return to their home country within the next three years.
