The United Arab Emirates has announced it will leave the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on May 1, in a significant blow to the oil producers’ alliance as tensions from the ongoing Iran war expose growing divisions among Gulf states.
The departure of the UAE—one of OPEC’s largest producers—is expected to weaken the group’s influence over global oil supply and deepen an emerging rift with Saudi Arabia, the bloc’s de facto leader. It could also allow Abu Dhabi to raise production once exports through the Gulf stabilise, as it would no longer be bound by OPEC quotas.
Speaking publicly for the first time since the announcement, UAE Energy Minister Suhail Mohamed al-Mazrouei said the decision followed a comprehensive review of national energy strategy.
“This is a policy decision, it has been done after a careful look at current and future policies related to level of production,” Mazrouei said in a telephone interview.
He added that the move was made independently, noting the UAE had not consulted other countries before taking the step.
Mazrouei also pointed to rising global energy demand, suggesting the UAE is positioning itself to meet future supply needs.
Despite the announcement, he downplayed any immediate market disruption, citing ongoing constraints in the Strait of Hormuz—a critical shipping route through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas typically passes.
“I do not expect much immediate market impact,” he said, referencing difficulties Gulf producers face in exporting crude due to Iranian threats and attacks on vessels.
The bottleneck has already reduced OPEC+’s share of global output. According to the International Energy Agency, the group’s share dropped to 44 per cent in March from about 48 per cent in February, with further declines expected as production disruptions persist and the UAE exits.
The move is seen as a political and economic win for U.S. President Donald Trump, who has long criticised OPEC. In a 2018 address to the United Nations General Assembly, Trump accused the group of “ripping off the rest of the world” by inflating oil prices, and has previously argued that OPEC members benefit unfairly from U.S. military protection while keeping prices high.
Analysts say the UAE’s departure could ultimately benefit consumers and global markets.
Monica Malik, chief economist at Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank, said: “This opens the door for the UAE to gain global market share when the geopolitical situation normalises.”
Similarly, Jorge Leon of Rystad Energy highlighted the UAE’s unique position as one of the few OPEC members with spare production capacity.
“Outside the group, the UAE would have both the incentive and the ability to increase production, raising broader questions about the sustainability of Saudi Arabia’s role as the market’s central stabiliser,” he said.
The decision also underscores a widening rivalry between Abu Dhabi and Riyadh. Once close allies, the two Gulf powers have increasingly clashed over oil policy, regional geopolitics, and competition for foreign investment and talent.
The UAE, a major business hub and key U.S. ally, has pursued an assertive foreign policy across the Middle East and Africa. Since coming under attack during the Iran conflict, it has strengthened ties with Washington and Israel, formalised under the Abraham Accords, which Abu Dhabi views as a strategic channel for influence in the region and access to the United States.
Meanwhile, Gulf leaders convened in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday for a summit aimed at coordinating a response to escalating Iranian missile and drone attacks, which have intensified since U.S. and Israeli forces launched strikes on Iran in late February.
The UAE’s exit marks a pivotal shift in the global energy landscape, with potential long-term implications for oil markets, regional alliances, and OPEC’s future cohesion.
Boluwatife Enome
