Player grades, Games 11-20: Edmonton Oilers survive tough road stretch, consolidate lofty standings spot

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“Win at home, break even on the road.”

It’s an old axiom for success in North American team sports, and one the Edmonton Oilers followed to a T in the second 10-game segment of the 2021-22 season.

The Oilers played just 2 home games over that span, winning both. Meanwhile, they managed a 4-4-0 record during a pair of lengthy road trips. (One could make a strong case that the true break-even rate in Gary Bettman’s NHL is closer to 4-3-1, but that’s a rant for another day.)

However you slice it, the Oil managed to hold serve during a difficult stretch that saw them play 10 games in 9 different NHL cities, in the process consolidating their red-hot though home-heavy 9-1-0 opening segment. As November concluded, Edmonton’s .750 points percentage was tops in the Western Conference and tied with Florida Panthers for the best in the entire National Hockey League. Here’s how the top 10 looks as the calendar turns to December:

And while some might bemoan Edmonton’s lack of bonus points under the “OT” column, this observer is not among them. In my view it’s a plus that the Oilers have played to 3 regulation ties and found a way to win — or at least “win” — all 3 of those games in gimmick time. Whereas rivals like Calgary Flames have continuously left the third point on the table.

2021-22:

Games 1 – 10: 9-1-0, .900 | 44 GF, 28 GA | 331 SF, 339 SA | 1.050 PDO
Games 11-20: 6-4-0, .600 | 31 GF, 31 GA | 323 SF, 341 SA | 1.005 PDO

The Oilers’ numbers returned to earth, especially on the offensive side of things where they produced 13 fewer goals over 10 games. Their shots on goals were barely different, but team shooting percentage plummeted from an otherworldly 13.3% to 9.6%, while their opponents trended up slightly from 8.3% to 9.1%.

Similar moderation of outcomes was evident in our own counts of Grade A shots here at the Cult of Hockey , where the Oilers had small but hardly overwhelming margins in each of the three game states:

  • Oilers: 143 Grade A shots, 103 EV, 31 PP, 9 SH
  • Opposition: 134 Grade A shots, 101 EV, 29 PP, 4 SH

The Oil continued to dominate special teams, though not quite to the same degree as the opening segment when they outscored their opponents by a staggering 16 goals to 4 in powerplay/penalty kill situations. In the second segment that advantage was “only” 10 to 4, with the Oilers top-ranked powerplay held to “just” 8/31=25.8%. Meanwhile the penalty kill continued to roll, allowing just 4 goals in 33 shorthanded situations while scoring 2 shorties themselves.

At 5v5 however, the Oilers didn’t fare so well, scoring 20 goals while allowing 25, and are now 3 goals underwater in the primary game state for the season as a whole. Suffice to say it’s an area for concern.

Let’s move on to individual performances, starting as usual with the men between the pipes:

Goal

Worth mentioning again that Mike Smith started the season as the organizational #1 and played every minute of the first 2½ games before departing with an under-disclosed injury. He hasn’t played since.

Mikko Koskinen played the last 7½ games of that opening segment, but shared the load in the second 10-game block with up-and-comer Stuart Skinner , with each starting 5 games. Skinner posted significantly better numbers than Koskinen across the board, with the key exception of wins. Koskinen managed the dubious feat of alienating a significant portion of the fan base during his single loss in 5 starts, even as he flat out stole 2 other wins in tough barns (St. Louis and Vegas) and now stands at an impressive 11-2-0 on the season.

The key difference between them not shown here is the matter of goal support; the Oilers scored 20 goals in Koskinen’s 5 starts vs. just 11 in Skinner’s.

Defence

Fairly balanced scoring from the back end in this segment, but considerably suppressed from the opening 10 in which no fewer than 3 rearguards mustered 6+ points. Nobody higher than 5 this time around, with Cody Ceci the surprise (co-)leader despite next to no time on that devastating powerplay unit. Not much of that either for Evan Bouchard , who continued to hum along with a point every other game. The third right shot d-man, powerplay specialist Tyson Barrie , was nipping at their heels from a points standpoint.

No goals at all, and just 7 assists, from the left side of the defence, represented by the last 6 names on the above list. Lots of chaos there, with the first 3 of those names suffering injuries within a week of one another, leaving the 3 guys at the bottom carrying the mail. Not much offence from that group as yet, even as Kris Russell did well on the goal differential front.

How scrambled is the blueline group? Consider that in the last 5 games, 5 different rearguards have led the corps in ice time:

  • Game 16 vs. WPG: Darnell Nurse 31:21
  • Game 17 vs. CHI: Duncan Keith 25:06
  • Game 18 at DAL: Cody Ceci 24:44
  • Game 19 at ARI: Kris Russell 22:56
  • Game 20 at VEG: Philip Broberg 23:34

That Edmonton managed to win 4 of those 5 games speaks to the resiliency of the d-corps, the goaltenders, the team as a whole, and the coaching staff.

Forwards

Another spectacular set of games for Leon Draisaitl , who scored 10 goals in 10 games for the second time in a row while leading the group in a variety of other categories from points and time on ice to shots on goal and even penalty minutes.

Meanwhile reigning MVP Connor McDavid endured a mild “slump”, if that word can be invoked to describe a run of 14 points in 10 games. Believe it or not we have to go back two seasons to 2019-20 to find the last identified 10-game segment where the phenom was held below 15 points, with several in the 20+ range including 22 in the opening 10 of the current campaign.

With those two stars continuing to dominate the league’s scoring race, the idea of “balanced scoring” is something of a pipe dream. But it’s nonetheless concerning to see the long line of zeroes in the bottom part of the Goals column. Of all those players who identified as full-time bottom-sixers throughout the segment, only youngster Ryan McLeod managed to light the lamp. That he did so 3 times was a most welcome development, but a little company on the goal-scoring front would be helpful.

No accident that the same group of players not scoring goals also display red numbers on the plus-minus front, with Derek Ryan ‘s dash-6 standing out. Ryan had some bad luck on some of those goals against, but the sad fact remains he’s had the poorest goal differential among forwards in both segments to date.