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2024 Edmonton Oilers prospects
#10 C Jayden Grubbe
- Previously: #8 in 2023
- age 21, 6’3, 203 lbs., acquired by trade 2023 May 31
When Noah Philp announced his retirement after the 2022-23 season, the Edmonton Oilers suddenly had a big hole in their feeder system, and at a key position. Ken Holland filled the hole that same spring, making a trade-and-sign with New York Rangers to acquire the rights to Jayden Grubbe on May 31, then signing the then-20-year-old to a three-year Entry Level Contract that same day. In acquiring the #65 pick from 2021, the Oilers gave up the #152 selection in 2023, a very reasonable exchange. For the Rangers, it was a late act to salvage something of substance from what for them was an unsigned draft pick.
It never became clear why the Broadway Blueshirts didn’t/couldn’t sign a player whose defence-first profile was known from his draft day. Elite Prospects had this to say about his game at the time:
- If there’s a defining skill here, it’s Grubbe’s defence. He’s less aggressive, and more quietly intelligent, eliminating off-puck threats, reading switch offs, and constantly scanning and adjusting. In transition, he builds speed under the puck, pushes plays to the middle, and finishes his off-puck routes to create space behind him.
We now have three more years of statistical data:
Grubbe was drafted by NYR at the red line, then traded to EDM at the blue one. In between times he’d seen a sudden and acute uptick in his scoring rates, which had run a little north of 0.5 points per game for two full seasons and the stub of a third in the Dub. Suddenly in his Draft +2 year, in which he turned 20 at mid-season, he scored over a point per game in both regular season and playoffs. But for whatever reason, he remained unsigned until Holland made his eleventh-hour move.
The three-year captain of the Red Deer Rebels checked a number of Philp-shaped boxes for his impending role with Bakersfield Condors, and perhaps a longer-term one with the Oilers. Both are big right-shot centres noted for strong defensive play, tailor-made for a checking role in the bottom 6. A hole the Oilers have been trying to fill since dealing off both Jarret Stoll and Kyle Brodziak 15 years ago.
I wrote the profile on this player a year ago as well, concluding with the following “Expectations for 2023-24”:
- Expectations for 2023-24: Make a good first impression at his third pro camp but first one in Edmonton… Perhaps spend some extra time with his old coach’s son Brandon Sutter, himself a former Rebel who is here on a PTO as a big right-shot two-way centre at the other end of the career curve. He’s certain to be re-assigned to Bakersfield where the success of his season likely won’t be reflected in goals and points — which will likely be modest — but in establishing a role and earning ice time.
I consider those expectations to have been met. He played 67 of Bakersfield’s 68 games, indeed producing very modest offensive numbers but allowing precious little the other way as well. He found enough of a role to be on the ice for 55 even strength goals, sawing off at 28 for and 27 against, frequently lining up with fellow depth grinders like Dino Kambeitz and Cameron Wright. In short, Grubbe continued to check both those boxes and his opponents.
He did log 53 penalty infraction minutes, suggesting that his robust play had carried forward from his junior days. Oddly, more than half of those minutes were charged in a single game, indeed a single incident. Unfortunately, there are no stats at the AHL level of some of the nuts and bolts aspects of the grinder’s game: hits, blocked shots, faceoffs (where he ran 58% in his final junior season). No info either on ice time, including special teams deployment. Slim pickings, and not a lot of meat on those boxcars either.
Once again I enlisted Ira Cooper, a frequent observer of the Condors and a contributor to this Cult of Hockey prospect series, to provide an eyewitness account of his play. Ira graciously responded:
- He is a big right shot centre who plays a very responsible game. He became a player that the coach trusted in some high leverage situations as he has good positioning in the defensive zone, a good stick and doesn’t cheat for offence. He does have some skill and goes to all the hard areas of the ice but he struggled to produce at the AHL level in a season where he turned 21. I expect him to be a bottom six centre again this season but he needs to put up close to 30 points in his 21-22 year old season if he is going to project as an NHL 4C. He’s a player the coach will play on tough situations at the AHL level but questions arise regarding enough skill to translate for the NHL.
Grubbe finished tied with fellow 20-year-old rookie Matvey Petrov with 14 points. In wiriting up Petrov as the #13 prospect, we noted that his assists total had plummeted from 66 his last season in junior to just 5 as a first-year pro. Grubbe saw a similar collapse in apples, from 49 to just 6. Biggest difference? Likely role and opportunity.
In Petrov’s case, we noted the departure of several wingers from the organization, opening a possible lane into the top 6. But Grubbe is facing a largely-opposite situation, where the Condors are much deeper at his position than they were in 2023-24.
Last year Lane Pederson was solid as the #1 centre, followed by the likes of Greg McKegg and Brad Malone. Pederson, a right-shot pivot who had a strong season, remains; McKegg and Malone do not. Into the breach step no fewer than three substantial players who will compete for ice time at the pivot position:
- James Hamblin played just 13 games in Bako a year ago, primarily at pivot. He got called up for 31 NHL contests, then got hurt shortly after being returned to the Condors, ending his season early. He signed a two-year extension on Jul 01, and slots somewhere in the organizational mix as a depth forward; in Bakersfield specifically as a likely centre.
- Matt Savoie was acquired via the trade route to much fanfare in early July. While his NHL future might lie on the wing, early indication from the organization was they would try him at his natural position — centre.
- Then there’s the guy we mentioned earlier. Noah Philp has ended his one-year retirement and re-signed with the Oilers on Jul 01. Philp’s attributes were discussed above, and have much in common with Grubbe’s other than the important fact that Noah will be 26 years old when the season starts, Jayden still just 21. It follows that the younger man may be standing (or should I say sitting) second in line when those high leverage situations that Ira mentioned arise.
One area of experience Grubbe and Philp have in common? Each has played exactly one year at the AHL level. Both struggled to put up points in the first half of their rookie season. But in the second half, Philp ripped it up, whereas Grubbe stayed roughly level.
So in one possible future, Grubbe ranks as the dreaded “5C” in Bakersfield, behind Pederson, Hamblin, Savoie, Philp (not necessarily in that order). In the real world, of course, situations are more fluid. Players get hurt, players switch positions, players get called up. James Hamblin alone did all of those things just last season.
Collectively, however, there will surely be heavier competition for time at centre ice in Bakersfield, and Grubbe’s challenge is to not get lost in the mix.
Expectations for 2024-25: Similar to last year: continue to establish a role for himself and earn ice time. Make the most of those minutes. A modest bump in offensive production to, say, 10 goals and 25 points will keep the NHL dream alive. He’s under contract through 2026, and will likely need the whole three years at the AHL level to grow his game.
