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Mikheil Kavelashvili is due to be inaugurated as Georgia’s new president on December 29. The former Manchester City footballer has represented the ruling Georgian Dream party in parliament since 2016.
During its time in office, Georgian Dream has moved the country away from engagement with the EU, and closer to Russia.
Georgian Dream has been in power since 2012. It is backed by the considerable financial resources of its founder, Bidzina Ivanishvili, who made his fortune in Russia and has extensive ties there. During that time, it has overseen increasingly harsh repression of Georgia’s independent media and brutal responses to ongoing popular protests.
In reaction to these policies, the US has suspended its strategic partnership with Georgia . The UK government has also announced it will suspend all aid to Georgia and restrict engagement with the Georgian Dream party.
But Kavelashvili’s appointment is likely to signal further change. He is one of the founders of a political movement known as The People’s Power, a radical offshoot of Georgian Dream which is known for even harsher anti-western, pro-Vladimir Putin rhetoric.
The lengths to which Georgian Dream has gone to ensure its choice of the next president suggests it regards this post as more important than its historically purely ceremonial status would suggest. Removing this role from an opposition figure may be the key to completing its takeover of the leading institutions of the state.
Constitutional changes
Kavelashvili is the first Georgian president not to be directly elected by the people. This was because of a 2022 change in the constitution initiated by Georgian Dream. He was chosen by a college of electors, composed of members of parliament and local government representatives. He was the only candidate on the ballot.
The way the new president was chosen was justified by the government as strengthening parliamentary democracy and reducing political polarisation. Independent analysts, by contrast, argue that it eroded potential checks on the government by giving the ruling party an almost guaranteed opportunity to choose the president.
Meanwhile, the opposition has accused the party of interfering in elections to ensure that it dominates national, regional and local government.
In the most recent elections in October 2024, Georgian Dream won 54% of seats in parliament, compared with a total of 38% for the four opposition parties.
There have been extensive claims that Georgian Dream manipulated these election results through violence, vote-buying and ballot box stuffing. The European Parliament has called for the election to be re-run.
So why is the shift towards Russia happening? Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Georgia’s trade with Russia has increased dramatically. Tbilisi has benefited from its willingness to ignore economic sanctions and welcome Russian tourists and businesses.
The personal economic interests of Georgia’s ruling elite now depend heavily on Tbilisi maintaining good relations with Russia. Such financial rewards mean that little or no action by Russia is needed to ensure these leaders continue that policy.
Similarities with Russia
In the political sphere, the Georgian Dream has used its time in power to push through a series of laws that are similar to repressive legislation adopted in Russia. These include a “foreign agents” law requiring organisations that receive more than 20% of their funding from abroad to register as “pursuing the interest of a foreign power”.
This requirement affects most of the independent NGO sector in Georgia, which finds it difficult to secure domestic funding in a political system that is so thoroughly dominated by a ruling party that does not welcome scrutiny or criticism.
Like Russia, Georgia has passed legislation that bans gay marriage, adoption by same-sex couples, and the depiction of LGBTQ+ people in the media, in order to protect “Christian and Georgian values”.
The adoption of Russian-style laws regulating aspects of everyday life has been accompanied by ongoing disputes with Brussels, first over its demands that Georgia tackle corruption and then over EU disapproval of Georgia’s repressive new laws.
On November 28, Tbilisi announced its withdrawal from EU accession negotiations and said it would reject EU funding until at least 2028.
It was this announcement, and the prospect that EU membership would be placed out of reach – perhaps indefinitely – that brought tens of thousands of protesters onto the streets. EU membership has been consistently popular among ordinary members of Georgian society, in sharp contrast to the strongly pro-Russian orientation of the government.
Outgoing president was opposition voice
The only remaining national political figure in Georgia willing and able to stand up to the government is the country’s outgoing president, Salome Zourabichvili , who was born and raised in the Georgian emigre community in France.
Zourabichvili is a passionate and articulate champion of democracy, human rights, and the benefits of greater integration with western Europe, including joining the EU. She has publicly sided with the protesters and called upon the EU to put pressure on Tbilisi to hold free and fair elections to reflect the will of the people.
She has refused to accept the legitimacy of the October parliamentary elections or Kavelashvili’s election, and has said that she will not vacate the presidency at the end of this month.
Zourabichvili’s ability to use her position as head of state to draw attention to her country’s plight and call upon the international community for help is another indication of the importance of the presidency, and why Georgia’s government was so determined to control it.
As the presidential inauguration on December 29 approaches, the stage is set for a confrontation that will determine the future direction of the country. Georgia’s prime minister, Irakli Kobakhidze, also from Georgian Dream, has already indicated what that might be, saying that Kavelashvili’s win “will make a significant contribution to strengthening Georgia’s statehood and our sovereignty”.
Unfortunately for its citizens, the government appears to hold all the cards: control of the political institutions including the security forces, enormous wealth, and the ruthlessness to use every means possible to defeat its opponents.
Jennifer Mathers does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
